US Economics Weekly Recession risks rising despite labour market resilience Our tracker models suggest the odds of a recession are rising although, on balance, we still expect a period of weak growth rather than an outright contraction. If we are wrong and a recession drives... 2nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly GDP resilience in Q2 to give way to recessions Q2 GDP figures show a mixed performance across the region, with economies most exposed to the war in Ukraine hit hardest while some of the region's largest economies continued to expand strongly. But... 2nd September 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Disappointing recovery already grinding to a halt Two quarters of strong outperformance have not been enough for the recovery in GDP to catch up with that in the US and, with growth now grinding to a halt, the divergence is set to widen again. 2nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in July suggests that, while headwinds facing the economy are growing, it started the third quarter in decent shape. Taken together with the robust... 2nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for double digit inflation and recession There has been some good news this week – including July’s labour market data and the continued rise in gas stocks – but the big picture is still very bleak, not least because even after the steep... 2nd September 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Labour force could be over the hill already The ongoing decline in the size of Japan’s adult population won’t look quite so worrying when the recent revival of immigration starts to be factored in. But the underlying trend has worsened over the... 2nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly COVID threat, marriage slump The number of Chinese cities tackling virus outbreaks is now almost as high as it was at the peak of the Omicron wave. The hit to activity remains smaller. But with Chengdu entering lockdown and other... 2nd September 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly GDP oddities, a long-term view of the rupee We’ve revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2022 following the weaker-than-expected data for Q2. But with policymakers appearing comfortable with the health of the economy, we aren’t inclined to... 2nd September 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn starting to weigh on activity While the plunge in homebuilding last quarter reflected supply shortages more than weak demand, slumping home sales and house prices suggest that the downturn in dwellings investment has much further... 2nd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry facing growing headwinds The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI to a three-month low last month was driven by China’s recovery stalling and weakness in export-oriented manufacturing EMs in parts of Asia and Eastern Europe. The... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing PMI now in recession territory The fall in the global manufacturing PMI in August implies that global industrial activity is contracting, and the further decline in the new orders and export orders sub-components suggests that... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The stabilisation in the ISM manufacturing index at 52.8 in August, unchanged from July, provides some further reassurance that the economy is not yet sliding into recession. While the details suggest... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: difficult times lie ahead despite IMF deal Today’s announcement of a deal between the IMF and Sri Lanka brings some long overdue good news and provides a potential route out of the crisis. But the economy is not out of the woods yet. The money... 1st September 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: difficult times lie ahead despite IMF deal Today’s announcement of a deal between the IMF and Sri Lanka brings some long overdue good news and provides a potential route out of the crisis. But the economy is not out of the woods yet. The money... 1st September 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2022) The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q2 has prompted us to revise up our 2022 GDP growth forecast to an above-consensus 2.5% (previously 2.0%). And the likelihood of a final... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
