Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 2022) November’s flash PMIs point to further weakness in the manufacturing sector, corroborating firms’ forecasts. At the same time, services activity appears to be struggling due to the rapid rise in... 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to continued downturn and easing inflation November’s flash PMIs were a mixed bag, with unexpected increases in Europe and a sharp fall in the US. However, the headline indices are now at levels consistent with falling activity in all major... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recession odds rising Despite the resilience evident in the latest round of hard data, our recession tracker models suggest the odds of a downturn next year are still rising. 23rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Global recession adds to headwinds facing Lat Am With the global economy headed for recession and commodity prices likely to come off their recent highs, Latin American exports will struggle over the coming quarters. Weakening global growth is also... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM inflation has passed the peak Having surged for the best part of two years, EM inflation appears to have passed the peak in this cycle. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation dropped from 7.8% y/y in September to 7.4% y/y in... 23rd November 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) While the composite flash PMI improved marginally in November, it stayed firmly below the no-change level of 50.0, which is consistent with our view that the economy is already in recession. However... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack North Africa turns to IMF to ease external strains Economies across North Africa have endured severe balance of payments strains this year and governments in Egypt and Tunisia finally secured staff-level agreements with the IMF over the past month... 23rd November 2022 · 10 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Weakening again in the face of COVID Our China Activity Proxy suggests that virus disruption led to a further decline in output in October. The combination of tightening COVID restrictions, voluntary isolation in the face of rising cases... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Resilient monthly data do not change gloomy outlook Recent monthly data from the advanced economies have tended to exceed analysts’ gloomy expectations. This is partly due to an easing of supply shortages, which could offer some further support to... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) October’s activity data for Poland suggest that the economy lost some steam at the start of Q4 and we think it was probably at the start of recession. We expect that evidence of a deeper downturn... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November) The flash PMIs for November add to the evidence that the economy will contract in Q4. The price indices suggest that inflation will soon peak, but they remain extremely high by past standards. 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, revised estimate) Revised GDP data confirm that the economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter. However, we don’t expect this strength to last. A combination of weaker global growth, high inflation and tighter... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Threat of widespread lockdowns high and rising The next few weeks could be the worst in China since the early weeks of the pandemic both for the economy and the healthcare system. Efforts to contain the current outbreak will, at the very least... 22nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
