Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Krona focus could mean more Riksbank rate hikes We doubt that the Riksbank’s new-found concern for the krona will make much difference to the outlook for the currency - which will probably remain at the mercy of global developments. However, it is... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2022, second estimate) The downward revision to German Q4 GDP means the hit to activity at the end of last year was closer to our original expectation. It also suggests a technical recession in Germany during Q4 and Q1 is... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Market pressure on Yield Curve Control intensifying Deputy Governor Amamiya’s reason for rejecting the governorship has made clear that the government wants to pivot away from the ultra-easy monetary policy of the past decade. As a result, market bets... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Risk of wage-price spiral still contained The more muted rise in wages last quarter should mollify the RBA’s concerns that the surge in inflation will trigger a wage-price spiral. While the fading impact of last year’s outsized minimum wage... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Morocco’s drought, Egypt’s dollar sukuk The effects of another severe drought in Morocco have weighed on growth, pushed up inflation and fuelled pockets of unrest. Supermarkets in Europe have felt the impact too, with many reporting... 23rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf slowdown underway After a stellar performance for most of 2022, the Gulf economies are slowing. Primarily, that has reflected the impact of oil production cuts agreed with the rest of OPEC+ which is weighing on growth... 23rd February 2023 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4 2022) Private investment picked up firmly last quarter and although firms expect capital spending to remain relatively healthy, their projections are consistent with a slowdown in real terms this financial... 23rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Mixed signals from underlying inflation The January CPI data provided mixed signals about developments in underlying inflation. The CPI excluding food and energy and the CPI excluding the eight most volatile components each rose by just 0.1... 22nd February 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External vulnerabilities to ease as growth weakens The latest data suggest that current account deficits in the region’s major economies narrowed towards the end of last year, which is particularly good news for Colombia and Chile. Both were running... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Event Long Run Drop-In: Fracturing and the global economy and markets through 2050 1677596400 The war in Ukraine. Ageing populations. Rising temperatures.
Emerging Europe Chart Pack One year into the war in Ukraine The first year of the war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the country’s economy and left it highly dependent on financing from allies. Russia’s economy has contracted too, but it weathered... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s economy recorded a surprisingly large pick-up in GDP growth, to 3.5% y/y, in Q4 but recent disruptions caused by the demonetisation process are likely to have dampened growth at the start of... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs and the war: one year on The war in Ukraine, which marks its one year anniversary on Friday, has had a profound impact on the emerging world. Ukraine’s economy has collapsed, while Russia’s has contracted too even though the... 22nd February 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) The further rise in the Ifo in February confirms that the German economy may have been a bit more resilient than we had expected in Q1. But with the index still in recessionary territory and the drag... 22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (February) 22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
