Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (December) The further recovery in the ZEW in December confirms that sentiment in Germany has improved a bit, but it remains at a very low level and we still think Germany is now already in a recession. 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Ghana secures $3bn IMF deal The news that Ghana has secured a $3bn staff-level agreement with the IMF will go some way to easing the country’s economic crisis, but the government still needs to clear a number of hurdles to put... 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) Coming on the back of yesterday’s larger-than-expected rise in GDP in October, today’s news that the labour market is loosening only gradually and wage growth continues to accelerate might further... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) The large increases in both industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in October provide clear signs that activity is holding up well despite the various domestic and external headwinds. But we... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Winter recession in motion Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharper-than-expected drop in headline CPI inflation in November (to 5.9% y/y) pulls it below the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s 2-6% target range for the first time in almost a year. We maintain... 12th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted a solid 0.4% m/m rise in output in October but the big picture is that industry has stagnated since the middle of this year. And while more timely survey indicators... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Oct.) The 0.5% m/m rise in GDP in October was mostly due to the rebound after September’s extra bank holiday. Even so, the surprisingly strong rise could tilt the Bank of England towards another bumper... 12th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Conundrum in SA, Nigeria’s cash limits, Ghana’s debt South Africa’s political upheaval took a breather this week but fears about the state electricity company, Eskom, have grown. Problems at Eskom not only pose a threat to economic activity but, if left... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary fending off another crisis, weak activity data The decision by Hungary’s government to abandon its cap on petrol and diesel prices this week adds to what has already been a sharp withdrawal of government support in recent months. Hungary’s economy... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumers will struggle next year The strong rise in services spending in October suggests that consumers are finally learning to live with the virus so a rebound in Q4 GDP looks very likely. But with real incomes slumping, that... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economic Outlook Bumpy road before zero-COVID is left behind The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear... 9th December 2022 · 23 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Nov.) The declines in headline and core inflation in November won’t stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates by 25bp next week. But they support our view that the tightening cycle is very nearly... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook End of tightening in sight The RBI has slowed the pace of rate hikes and is likely to call a halt to tightening in early 2023. As the economy weakens, rate cuts could come onto the agenda by late next year and materialise in... 8th December 2022 · 19 mins read
