Europe Economics Weekly QT launched, France flatlining? The latest data suggest that France’s economy is performing a little better than Germany’s and may even avoid recession, at least in the first half of this year. Meanwhile, we expect to learn next... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggling, Switzerland holding up Data released this week showed that Sweden’s economy contracted by more than previously thought in Q4, and we expect further declines to come. But Switzerland’s economy is holding up better and there... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Feb.) February’s final Composite PMIs suggests that economic activity in the euro-zone has been fairly resilient in February, with the indices for Spain and Italy, and for the services sector, particularly... 3rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Making sense of the activity data The economy appears to have held up a touch better than we had anticipated at the start of this year, mirroring the trend in several other major economies. Q4 is likely to have marked the trough for q... 3rd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Private consumption will weaken further this year While Q4 GDP was broadly in line in with our expectations, the details show that the Australian consumer is on weaker ground than we had thought. The confluence of falling real disposable incomes... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the growth target The GDP growth target for 2023 will be revealed on Sunday at the opening of the National People’s Congress. There is speculation that it could be raised relative to last year but we think that’s... 3rd March 2023 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy headed for recession We're expecting industrial production to rebound strongly in February. Even so, industrial output will still slump this quarter, pointing to a larger q/q fall in Q1 GDP than we’re forecasting. However... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt: winners and losers of a weaker EGP emerging Recent falls in the pound and rising borrowing costs forced Egypt’s Ministry of Finance to revise up its targets for debt and the budget deficit earlier this week, but we remain of the view that the... 2nd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2022) The 0.2% q/q fall in Brazil’s GDP in Q4, which was driven by weakness in domestic demand, provides clear evidence that high interest rates are taking a heavier toll on the economy. Taken together with... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Capital Spending (Q4 2022) The increase in capital spending reported in today’s “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations” is broadly consistent with the preliminary Q4 GDP estimate. That means Q4 GDP growth is likely to... 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dwellings investment won’t fall as sharply Although the fall in house prices slowed significantly in February, we are not convinced that Australia’s housing market is out of the woods yet. Even so, there are growing indications that dwellings... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: industrial downturn bottoming out The manufacturing PMIs for February remained very weak in most EMs, but they did at least provide signs that industry across much of the emerging world has fared better so far this year than it did in... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Industry struggling but possibly past the worst The broad-based improvement in the output components of February’s manufacturing PMIs suggests that the worst of the global industrial downturn is already in the rear-view mirror. That said, it is too... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.7 in February, from 47.4, leaves it firmly in contractionary territory. That should temper talk of a manufacturing resurgence on the back of... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Event China Drop-In: The National People’s Congress and China’s economic outlook 1678107600 The annual meeting of China’s National People’s Congress began this weekend with the publication of key economic targets for the coming year.
