UK Economics Update Pandemic recovery helped prevent recession The UK avoided a recession last year partly because of more spending by households on restaurants and trains and partly because of more investment by businesses in aircraft, cars and cruise ships... 16th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q4 2022) The surprise acceleration in Israel GDP growth in Q4, to 5.8% q/q annualised, is not as good as it seems at first sight. The strength was largely driven by an unexpected surge in expenditure on... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recessions postponed, not cancelled A raft of strong data out of the US have poured cold water on the idea that its economy has tumbled into recession at the start of 2023. And this comes after GDP data revealed that the euro-zone and... 16th February 2023 · 13 mins read
Event Africa Drop-In: Nigeria’s crunch presidential election 1677160800 Nigerians go to the polls on 25th February for general elections which could put the country on a very different path.
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) The stronger-than-expected 0.7% q/q expansion in Colombia’s GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy was a regional outperformer over 2022 as a whole. But the expenditure breakdown suggests that the... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s policy rate to rise above 3% The resilience of the economy and house prices, together with the strength of inflation, suggest that the Norges Bank will raise interest rates a bit further than we previously anticipated. We now... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 1.0% m/m rebound in manufacturing output in January provides further evidence that the economy began the year on a strong footing. That said, while the survey evidence also appears to be turning a... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The massive 3.0% m/m surge in retail sales in January may have been partly related to the unseasonably mild winter in the Northeast but, alongside the unexpected strength of payroll employment, it... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) Another rise in motor vehicle manufacturing sales failed to offset weakness elsewhere in December, with overall sales volumes edging down. The rebound in the S&P Manufacturing PMI and manufacturing... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Dec.) & Nigeria CPI (Jan.) December’s hard activity figures out of South Africa point to a mild contraction in GDP in Q4 and indicate that weakness in the economy is spreading beyond industrial sectors. Elsewhere, the pick-up... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Property will be part of the post-COVID revival The roots of the crisis in China’s property sector lie in the worsening long-term outlook for demand. This has not improved. But sales started the year so beaten down that a short-run cyclical... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Output & Trade Balance (Dec.) The fall in euro-zone industrial production and imports in December further highlights the weakening in the economy at the end of last year. We expect the economy to enter a recession this year as the... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus Unlocking India's demographic potential If it isn't already, India will soon be the world’s most populous nation. But this doesn’t mean that policymakers can simply wait for the economic benefits to arrive. The key to unlocking India’s... 15th February 2023 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to slow sharply The 6.9% annual rise in Australia’s trimmed mean CPI in Q4 was stronger than the RBA’s November forecast and has prompted some hawkish rhetoric from the Bank at its February meeting. Indeed, we now... 15th February 2023 · 12 mins read
