Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q4) Despite stagnating in Q4, the Swiss economy remained notably bigger than its pre-pandemic level and has outperformed its European peers. We are forecasting a contraction in Q1 2023 and for the economy... 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2022) Turkey’s economy expanded by 0.9% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q4, but growth remained unbalanced as it was driven largely by private consumption while net trade provided a sizable drag. We think growth will... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jan. 2023) & GDP Partials (Q4 2022) While retail sales bounced back in January, the rebound probably won’t be enough to prevent a contraction in sales volumes across the first quarter. 28th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan. 23) We suspect that the early start to the Lunar New Year was partly responsible for the sharp fall in industrial production in January and there should be a strong rebound in February. Meanwhile, retail... 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack How will central banks respond to the latest currency falls? Asian currencies have dropped back over the past few weeks against the US dollar, with the two worst hit currencies (the Thai baht and the Korean won) down around 6% against the greenback since the... 27th February 2023 · 15 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Feb.) The stabilisation of the EC’s economic sentiment indicator in February contrasts with the significant increases in the PMIs and provides some support for our view that the economy will struggle this... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators continued to rebound across Central and Eastern Europe in February, with our regional weighted measure hitting an eight-month high. It is broadly consistent with... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data point to recession The effects of tighter monetary policy are clear in the money and credit data. Households and firms have continued to lock their money up in longer-term deposits which are less likely to be spent, and... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan. 23) 28th February 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Politics and the public finances Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, are both facing slow-burning debt problems. In Nigeria at least, elections on Saturday offer an opportunity to shift towards... 24th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s economy one year on, Israel’s judicial reform Russia's war in Ukraine marks its one year anniversary this week and one of the more surprising macroeconomic developments during this time has been the resilience of Russia's economy, which... 24th February 2023 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in activity growth likely to be short lived With markets responding to recent strong data by ramping up interest rate expectations, there doesn’t yet seem to be much need for the Fed to embark on a renewed hawkish turn. 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Investors’ hawkish shift is justified We don’t think that wage growth will ease to levels consistent with the 2.0% inflation target without weaker economic activity and a rise in the unemployment rate. The recent resilience of the economy... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q1 resilience, ECB losses The latest survey data for February suggest that the euro-zone economy is holding up better than we expected in Q1. However, a contraction is still well within the realm of possibility. Meanwhile, we... 24th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Krona focus could mean more Riksbank rate hikes We doubt that the Riksbank’s new-found concern for the krona will make much difference to the outlook for the currency - which will probably remain at the mercy of global developments. However, it is... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
