Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) The October retail sales and industrial production data for Russia tell more of the same story: an economy that has passed the worst of the downturn, but that is desperately struggling for momentum... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s COVID outbreak: your questions answered We hosted an online Drop-In yesterday to discuss China’s COVID outbreak and its domestic and global implications. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM GDP: rebound in Q3, but headwinds building EM GDP rebounded in Q3, but this is unlikely to be the start of a sustained upturn. Headwinds in the form of high inflation, tight monetary policy and weak external demand will drag on growth in the... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) While base effects caused a sharp slowdown in headline GDP growth in India in Q3 (Q2 of FY22/23), growth held up well in quarter-on-quarter terms. However, there are signs in more timely activity data... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2022) Turkey’s resilience since last year’s currency crisis came to an end in Q3 as the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q. Private consumption remained strong, but fixed investment declined and net trade was a... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Nov.) The official PMIs add further evidence of another large blow to services activity as virus disruptions intensified this month. The hit to industry looks to have been more modest. But downside risks... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CPI Indicator (Oct.) & Construction Work Done (Q3) We wouldn’t read too much into the drop in the Monthly CPI Indicator in October because the figures don’t cover the entire CPI basket, but the data suggest that inflation is about to peak. 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Oct. 22) Industrial production saw a steeper contraction in October, while firms’ output forecasts for November and December point to a weak rebound. 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Resilience in CEE industry unlikely to last Industry across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has held up better than might have been expected this year given the extent of the energy price shock. While output in energy-intensive industry has... 29th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3) The stronger-than-expected gain in third-quarter GDP tips the odds slightly toward another 50 bp interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada next week. But, with domestic demand contracting for the... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Early preparations to exit zero-COVID Concrete signs of an effort to exit from zero-COVID are emerging, with a notice today of a push to vaccinate the elderly. The low level of vaccine coverage of the most vulnerable is, along with a lack... 29th November 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey and Spain HICP (November) The small increase in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for November suggests that prospects for the euro-zone economy may no longer be deteriorating. We still expect a recession, but it is... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have a bit further to run Most central banks across Sub-Saharan Africa raised interest rates over the past month and, in contrast to many other parts of the emerging world, we think tightening cycles will last a while longer... 29th November 2022 · 11 mins read
