Europe Economics Update Construction output likely to keep falling The euro-zone’s Composite PMI was much stronger than expected in February, but it excludes the construction sector where prospects are weaker. Tighter financial conditions and softer demand in the... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest DMs are dodging recession again in Q1 The flash PMIs for February provided more evidence that advanced economies have remained more resilient than expected so far this year. Both the manufacturing and services sectors contributed to this... 21st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Property slump leading Sweden into recession Swedish house prices have fallen 18% from their peak and could drop by a further 5% or so from here. This should not cause significant financial stability problems but will be a major drag on economic... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack January strength unlikely to last The resurgence in activity and employment in January means that there is little chance of the economy falling into recession in the first quarter and we now expect GDP growth of 1.5% annualised. That... 21st February 2023 · 10 mins read
India Chart Pack Adani spill-over risks: not out of the woods yet In a crowded field given the FY23/24 Union Budget and the RBI’s more-hawkish-than-expected policy announcement, the Adani short-selling crisis has been the main story over the past month. So far at... 21st February 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s public finances under increasing strain Russia’s budget deficit has widened sharply in recent months and is likely to remain under pressure amid lower oil prices and rising military spending. The government is unlikely to experience severe... 21st February 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) The ZEW indicators point to a further improvement in sentiment towards Germany and, along with other recent surveys, suggest that the economy is holding up better than we had anticipated. 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb.) The sharp rebound in the flash UK composite PMI in February suggests that the economy remained resilient to the dual drags from high inflation and high interest rates at the start of this year. But we... 21st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s chunky rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy will grow in Q1. With the labour market still very tight and price pressures strong, the survey will reinforce ECB... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Poland’s softer-than-expected activity data for January suggest that the economy started 2023 on weak footing and we expect it to struggle for momentum over the first half of the year as high... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea: recession and rate cuts The near-term economic outlook for Korea is very poor, with falling real incomes, problems in the housing market, and weak global demand all set to weigh on prospects this year. Our forecast is that... 21st February 2023 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 23) February’s flash PMIs are broadly consistent with our downbeat narrative of the economy in 2023. The manufacturing PMI fell further due largely to a plunge in export orders, while a further rise in... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2022) The 2.1% contraction in Russian GDP in 2022 was smaller than expected and is consistent with an expansion in Q4, providing further evidence to suggest that the economy stabilised after the initial hit... 20th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Comparing CE forecasts to the consensus Being ranked by the Sunday Times as the top UK economic forecaster for 2022 is a great accolade and has generated a lot of interest in what we expect to happen next. Our forecasts for 2023 imply a... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
