Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ cuts and the Gulf, Saudi labour, Morocco-IMF The surprise voluntary oil output cut by OPEC+ will directly shave 1-2%-pts off GDP growth in the region’s members this year, which has prompted us to revise down our 2023 GDP growth forecasts. That... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update RBI unlikely to tighten policy any further The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today belied the central bank’s recent hawkish communications. The door remains ajar for hikes in the future but with headline inflation set... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) The second consecutive big increase in German industrial production in February all but confirms that GDP returned to growth in Q1. The industrial resilience may continue in the coming months but we... 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Feb. 2023) The widening of the trade surplus in February largely reflects the fact that imports of goods and services fell at a much faster rate than exports. Therefore, even though net trade will make a... 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Feb. 2023) 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Mar.) Our composite models suggest the economy was on track to fall into recession soon even before the impact of the banking turmoil feeds through. There also appears to be a lower, but rising, chance that... 5th April 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Resilient, but recession still likely Recent data suggest the economy’s resilient end to 2022 was sustained at the start of this year. But while the worst of the falls in real household incomes are in the past, we still think around two... 5th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Drought to push Argentina’s economy into deep recession The historic drought afflicting Argentina will cause a steeper contraction in GDP than most expect this year and intensify balance of payments strains by reducing export earnings to the tune of 2-3%... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMIs suggest that the economy expanded in Q1. They also point to further gains in employment and strong price pressures. With the turmoil in the banking sector having stabilised, this makes us... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will send New Zealand into recession The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 50bp, to 5.25%, came as an upside surprise, but we still think the end of the hiking cycle is approaching. In any case... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Apr. 2023) March’s batch of PMIs showed that activity in non-oil sectors in Qatar and Saudi Arabia continued their good start to the year, whereas in Egypt the near-term pain from higher inflation and a weaker... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Activity in Nigeria slumped in Q1 Data suggest that Nigeria’s key oil sector perked up in early-2023, but this was more than offset by weakness in the non-oil economy on the back of bungled demonetisation efforts. And we expect... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs: weaker activity and inflation The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity was broadly flat in Q1, and confirm that the post-COVID rebound in China was concentrated in the service sector. The upside is... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing remains subdued The manufacturing PMIs for March made for pretty downbeat reading in most EMs and the outlook for the coming months remains lacklustre. One source of comfort however is that, at an EM level, price... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
