Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) The easing of supply shortages provided a big boost to motor vehicle shipments in November, but this failed to offset falls elsewhere. While there is scope for transportation equipment sales to rise... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Economic Fracturing in 2023 – New Year, New Risks 1674054000 2023 has begun with the Ukraine war still raging, tensions mounting over global trade practices, but also signs that China is dialling down its aggressive diplomatic posturing.
UK Economics Update Drag from higher interest rates will soon intensify The recent resilience of the economy to the dual drags of high inflation and higher interest rates doesn’t mean the pain has been avoided. Instead, our analysis suggests that higher interest rates... 16th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly China rebound, Thai election, new currency forecasts Disruption from China’s reopening is fading faster than we had expected and we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for this year. As daily life in China returns to normal, spending at hotels... 13th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Disinflation takes hold in CEE, Russia’s budget pressures This week brought the clearest evidence yet that the disinflation process in Central Europe is underway as most economies experienced a broad-based easing of price pressures in December. This is... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Recession delayed not cancelled It’s starting to feel like a recession will never happen, but it will. Admittedly, the government may be absorbing more of the hit to national income from the surge in the cost of energy imports than... 13th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economic outlook improving, but still poor The euro-zone economy held up better than we anticipated in Q4 and the outlook for the coming quarters has improved. But with high inflation set to continue to weigh on household incomes and the drag... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recent good news doesn’t preclude DM recessions The past month has brought a string of positive developments on the activity and inflation side. The biggest news has been China’s decision to throw in the towel on its zero-COVID policy, which... 13th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q4 contraction may have been avoided The euro-zone economy held up a bit better than we expected at the end of last year. On balance, the data point to GDP flat-lining or contracting only slightly in Q4. 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Nov.) The small 0.1% m/m gain in real GDP in November (consensus -0.2% m/m, CE -0.3% m/m) suggests the economy did not contract in Q4 and is not in recession. Even so, it is too soon to conclude the economy... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Upgrade to 2023 China forecast and its implications Disruption from China’s reopening is fading faster than we had expected and we have revised up our forecast for growth there from 2.0% to 5.5%. This means that global GDP growth will be stronger than... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Insights from Euromoney’s CEE conference Europe’s energy crisis, sky-high rates of inflation and Ukraine’s reconstruction were among the biggest topics of conversation at Euromoney’s Central and Eastern European forum in Vienna this week... 12th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Runners and riders in Nigeria’s upcoming elections In the first instalment of our Election Watch series ahead of the late-February polls in Nigeria, we assess the economic policies proposed by key candidates. The elections offer a chance to depart... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
