Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM prospects brighten at the start of the year The outlook for emerging markets is looking better than it did just a few weeks ago. Most obviously, China’s shift to living with COVID means that its economy will rebound far sooner than we had... 24th January 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The renewed fall in the flash UK composite PMI in January suggests that some of the resilience in economic activity towards the back end of 2022 petered out in early 2023. That supports our view that... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The increase in the flash euro-zone Composite PMI for January left it consistent with the economy roughly stagnating. With employment intentions and price pressures still high, there is nothing here... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to much slower employment growth The sharp fall in hiring intentions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey suggests that the 104,000 surge in employment in December is not a sign of things to come. The survey points to a... 23rd January 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) Polish industrial production remained resilient in December but high inflation weighed heavily on real incomes and took its toll on retail sales. On balance, we think that Poland’s economy is likely... 23rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s loan-to-bond swap, SA power cuts permeating Plans by the government of Nigeria to swap central bank loans to bonds have hit a sticky patch, making it unclear whether the country can reap the associated economic gains. Elsewhere, the fallout... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany to avoid industrial recession We now think German industry will continue to grow in the coming months as lower gas prices, easing supply shortages and high backlogs of orders support production. 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity data take a turn for the worse The weakness of retail sales and manufacturing output over the final two months of 2022 has reignited market fears of a hard landing this week, with the Fed’s latest Beige Book acknowledging that... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Domestic inflation is proving persistent CPI inflation is falling, but domestic inflationary pressures are proving persistent as the labour market remains tight and wage growth remains strong. Combined with a more resilient economy than the... 20th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession postponed or even cancelled We suspect that the resilience of the economy in late-2022 was due to the combination of lower energy prices, increased government support and easing supply problems in industry, while the drag from... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.0% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in December was much worse than both we and the consensus (+0.5% m/m) had expected. That meant sales volumes fell 1.3% q/q in Q4 and were a disappointing 5.4%... 20th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 10-year yield ceiling will be tested again soon 10-year JGB yields have traded well within the 50bp tolerance band since the BoJ maintained its policy settings on Wednesday. Even so, we still expect the Bank to jettison Yield Curve Control in April... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: The latest on China’s reopening, Asian monetary policy, and markets 1674720000 China’s shift from zero-COVID is the big Asia story of the moment and our economists gave an update on what this means for the region’s growth outlook, including how quickly outbound tourism is rec
US Chart Pack Weakness spreads to the hard activity data First came the inversion of the yield curve. Next the index of leading indicators began to fall. Then the survey-based activity indicators plunged well below the 50 mark. Finally, this week we learned... 19th January 2023 · 10 mins read
