Asia Chart Pack Currency rebound provides welcome relief to policymakers Asian currencies have continued to rebound against the US dollar over the past month, and most are now up by around 5-15% against the greenback since early November. Optimism around China’s reopening... 30th January 2023 · 15 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) The improvement in economic sentiment in January is consistent with the picture painted by other surveys. But the high level of firms’ selling price expectations shows that the ECB’s work is far from... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) Economic sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe picked up again in most countries in January and our regional-weighted measure hit a four-month high. We still think that GDP in most countries will... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2022) The fall in German GDP in Q4 shows that the energy crisis started to dent activity at the end of last year. This pours cold water on the recent optimism about the prospects for the euro-zone and... 30th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2022) The 4.9% increase in Polish GDP over 2022 as a whole is consistent with a slowdown in growth to around 1.6% y/y in Q4 and a small quarterly decline in output of around 0.5% q/q, confirming that the... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q4) Data published today show that the economy contracted by 0.6% q/q in Q4 as the resilience previously reported towards the end of last year has been revised away. With the more timely data for December... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed close to peak in rates as activity stagnates Commentators were quick to dismiss the latest decline in the leading indicators index, which left it pointing unambiguously to a recession. But despite the apparent resilience of fourth-quarter GDP... 27th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly “Lira-isation” drive deepens, MNB’s hawkish stance Turkish policymakers deepened their "lira-isation" drive this week by increasing the incentive for firms to convert their FX earnings into lira, but we're not convinced that the policy changes will be... 27th January 2023 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism on the Norwegian krone The recent depreciation of the Norwegian krone might have further to run, but we think that rising energy prices and improved investor risk appetite will cause it to strengthen in the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Funding tussle may scupper higher spending on babies PM Kishida’s plan to lift spending on childcare would take the total outlay to the highest in the OECD. However, this likely won’t have much of an impact on the stubborn decline in fertility. After... 27th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers: now feeling the pinch Consumer spending in emerging markets initially recovered quickly from the pandemic, but it looks like high interest rates and inflation caused spending growth to slow sharply over the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending weak and savers locking up their cash December’s euro-zone money and credit data show that the effects of rising interest rates were starting to be felt. Households and firms shifted their money into longer-term deposits which are less... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: What China’s re-opening means for emerging markets 1675350000 China has made an abrupt shift away from zero-COVID, prompting a wave of market euphoria – and some anxiety – about a surge in demand.
China Economics Weekly Brighter days ahead for the housing market New home sales have almost halved over the past couple of years but a cyclical rebound appears to be kicking off now that government policy has turned more supportive on multiple fronts. 27th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q4) Spain’s GDP increased in Q4 and is performing better than we expected only a couple of months ago. But Spain is still a laggard in Europe, with the economy smaller than it was before Covid. We think... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
