Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) The fifth successive monthly increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in March suggests that Germany is still benefitting from falling energy prices and easing supply problems but has yet to... 27th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Is the door closing for fiscal loosening in the Gulf? One of the main channels through which the Gulf countries are exposed to worries about the health of the global banking system in through energy markets, with the price of Brent crude falling by 13%... 24th March 2023 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest DMs avoided recession in Q1 The flash PMIs for March suggest that not only did advanced economies avoid recession in Q1, but the outlook for activity has improved as well. However, we still think the hit from higher interest... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The two-sided risks to our rate forecasts Our view is that Bank Rate will rise from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.50% and stay there for all of this year before being cut to around 3.00% by the end of next year. But the two-sided risks to our... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed right to expect economic hit from bank turmoil The Fed will need to wait at least another few weeks for clearer evidence of the impact from the recent banking sector turmoil, but we expect economic weakness will convince officials to move to the... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The flash PMIs suggest the economy’s strong start to the year was sustained in March. But with the full drag from high interest rates yet to be felt, our hunch is still that the economy will enter a... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to start cutting rates by year-end High interest rates and weak export demand will weigh on the region’s economies this year, and we expect below-trend and below-consensus growth in most countries in 2023. The exceptions are China... 24th March 2023 · 35 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) The strong batch of euro-zone flash PMIs for March suggests that the economy expanded in Q1 and that both employment conditions and price pressures remained very strong. That adds to the reasons to... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March 2023) The strong batch of euro-zone flash PMIs for March means it is now all but certain that the economy expanded in Q1 while both employment conditions and price pressures remained very strong. With the... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on a knife-edge With the minutes of the RBA's March meeting pointing to a slightly more dovish stance, there are growing risks to our forecast for continued tightening in April and May. We think the case for a pause... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Mar. 22) March’s flash PMIs corroborate our view that the economy will see a mild recession this year. The manufacturing PMI improved but was still contractionary, as demand remained weak. Meanwhile a further... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Financial markets bruised, central banks hawkish Financial markets across Sub-Saharan Africa have struggled – and have underperformed their EM peers – since the global banking sector turmoil erupted. Amid broad risk-off sentiment, African sovereign... 23rd March 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Global bank turmoil another headwind to Em Europe The turmoil in the global banking sector has not spread to Emerging Europe, but the focus is back on the health of the region’s banks given the not-so-distant memory of the 2008/09 banking crises that... 23rd March 2023 · 11 mins read
