Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The strength of GDP growth in January, and probably February too, suggests the Bank of Canada will use its April meeting to reiterate that, despite the recent banking turmoil, it is still prepared to... 31st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Calm after the storm, but inflation still a headwind With the banking sector panic subsiding, attention is returning to the inflation outlook. And as core euro-zone inflation edged up to a new all-time high in March we think policymakers will remain in... 31st March 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean industry struggling, CPTPP+UK Korea’s manufacturing sector is in for a painful year with bloated inventories and weak external demand set to drag on production. Data published earlier today showed that production of semiconductors... 31st March 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q4 Final) The final Q4 2022 GDP data suggested the economy was even more resilient in 2022 than we previously thought, as the government absorbed some of the hit to households from high inflation. But we still... 31st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Minimum wage will surge again With Australian unions and the government both in agreement on the need to protect low-income workers, we expect a bumper 6% rise in the minimum wage this year. However, given the low share of workers... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yield Curve Control still on counted time The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma as inflationary pressures are becoming increasingly broad-based at the same time as economic activity is softening. What may tilt the balance towards the ending of... 31st March 2023 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Mar.) The official PMIs suggest that China’s rapid reopening recovery remained robust this month. The weak global backdrop weighed on manufacturing but services continued to benefit from a resurgence in... 31st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb. 23) While industrial production bounced back and retail sales recorded a strong increase in February, we still think that the economy entered a recession this quarter. 31st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High inflation will limit room for interest rate cuts GDP growth in Latin America will be among the weakest of any EM region this year and next, and is likely to disappoint consensus expectations. Persistently high inflation has prompted us to push back... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 46 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Dodging a deep downturn, but challenges far from over There are encouraging signs that the energy crisis is receding, the worst of the downturn is passing and that inflation has peaked across the region, but this year will still be challenging. We expect... 30th March 2023 · 29 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Lenders not immune to commercial property risks Canada’s banks do not face the same immediate risks as those elsewhere. The bank sector is far more concentrated than in the US, limiting the chance that problems at small lenders will trigger a... 30th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asian banks in decent shape, but credit risks lurk The turmoil in the global banking system over the past month has had a limited impact on Asia – currencies have held up well and outflows of capital have been small. And in general, banking sectors in... 30th March 2023 · 16 mins read
