Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s fiscal position, destination Dubai, Gulf inflation Egypt’s government debt-to-GDP ratio jumped to 96% in FY2022/23, one of the largest ratios in the emerging world, but there remain reasons to think that the government will be able to avoid a... 17th August 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Policy paralysis has dented near-term outlook China’s economy has stalled recently and headwinds are still intensifying on multiple fronts. The lack of a stronger stimulus response partly reflects a greater tolerance for economic weakness. But it... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 17th August 2023 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Growth in the real economy appears to be gathering momentum, but with survey-based indicators still weak and credit conditions continuing to tighten, we expect that rebound to be short-lived. In... 16th August 2023 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The 1.0% m/m surge in industrial production in July was partly due to a weather-related jump in utilities output and, although manufacturing output also rebounded by a solid 0.5%, the surveys suggest... 16th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Jun.) South Africa’s activity data for June suggest that the economy managed to eke out positive growth in Q2, but more timely indicators suggest that activity struggled to sustain this momentum at the... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q2 2023) The small pick-up in Israeli GDP growth to 3.0% q/q annualised in Q2 shows that the economy is holding up better than we and most other had thought this year. And we think that growth will remain... 16th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone industry running out of steam The support to industrial production from the end of major supply chain disruption has run its course. And while the drop in gas prices over the past year could give a boost to some firms, output... 16th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2023 2nd est.), Employment (Q2 2023) and Industrial Production (June) Despite euro-zone industrial production having increased in June on a monthly basis, it remained well below its Q1 average. And with demand having fallen sharply in recent months, we expect output to... 16th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2023) Q2 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally came in below expectations and suggest that the region continued to suffer the ill-effects from high inflation and interest rates last... 16th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession across the second half of the year. But with... 16th August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals extended pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold, as was widely expected. However, the minutes of today’s meeting were unambiguously on the hawkish side, with the Committee indicating the need to... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q2) The larger-than-expected 1.0% q/q contraction in Colombia’s GDP in Q2 is likely to be followed by further weakness over the coming quarters. We expect this to prompt BanRep to join other central banks... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What happens after EM currency crises? Emerging economies whose currencies have fallen by 15% or more against the dollar in a single day – as the Argentine peso did yesterday – have fallen into recession in more than 80% of cases in the... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: China’s troubled outlook – How great is recession and financial risk? 1692275400 Property developers on the brink. A slip into deflation. Activity at a standstill.
