Japan Economics Weekly Recession now looking unlikely Wage growth has been strong in recent months which will make it easier for households to cope with high inflation. What’s more, the outlook for external demand has brightened as we no longer expect... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian households pinch pennies New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that real household spending well and truly fell of a cliff in Q2. Moreover, with consumer sentiment in the doldrums, private consumption is... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update How much is fiscal policy supporting activity? With lingering pandemic and energy support measures coming to a close and governments returning one eye to previous fiscal targets, fiscal policy will tighten a little in advanced economies over the... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines GDP (Q2) The economy contracted in Q2 and we expect continued weakness in the near-term as elevated interest rates and weak global demand weigh on economic output in the Philippines. 10th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kwanza slump adds to clouds over Angola’s outlook Angola’s recent 40% devaluation of the kwanza will add to inflation pressures and prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy aggressively, all of which will weigh on near-term growth. The... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ done hiking, rate cuts in Q1 2024 With inflation coming off the boil and labour market conditions starting to turn, we suspect that Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not lift interest rates any higher. To be sure, the Bank is likely to... 9th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) German industrial output fell in June and we expect it to decline further in the rest of this year as high interest rates and weakening demand take a toll on production. 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q2 2023) Official figures show Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.2% y/y in the second quarter of the year, slightly higher than the 5.0% growth rate recorded in Q1. In contrast, our own Activity Tracker suggests... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rate cuts approaching in CEE, retail downturn passing Expectations for the start of monetary easing cycles in Poland and Czechia strengthened this week and the debate now is about whether or not central banks will cut interest rates at their next... 4th August 2023 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria unorthodox remarks, weak South Africa activity Amid signs that the removal of fuel subsidies and devaluation of the naira are weighing on Nigeria’s economy, comments from President Tinubu and potential cabinet members this week reinforced our... 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone won’t keep dodging recession There was something for both the bulls and bears in the euro-zone’s Q2 GDP data, but we fall into the latter camp. We have tweaked our GDP forecasts but still think that the economy will slip into a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP in no rush to cut, Indonesia’s dodgy GDP data Headline inflation in the Philippines fell sharply last month, but with the core rate still elevated and worries about the inflationary impact of El Niño rising, the central bank (BSP) is in no rush... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in June and we expect them to continue to trend down over the rest of this year as high interest rates take an increasing toll on consumers. 4th August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA unlikely to lift rates any higher With the Reserve Bank of Australia having left its cash rate unchanged for two consecutive meetings, we think its tightening cycle is at an end. Indeed, the RBA appears increasingly concerned that... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 3rd August 2023 · 1 min read
