Europe Data Response EC Survey (May) The larger-than-expected fall in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in May is consistent with our view that the euro-zone will continue to stagnate in the second quarter. Meanwhile, firms’ selling... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi unlikely to revisit last year’s lows The renminbi strengthened sharply against the US dollar in response to China’s move away from zero-COVID. But the currency has since reversed much of those gains and is now approaching 7.10/$, its... 30th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1) The rebound in the Swiss economy in Q1 was due to robust domestic private sector demand, which more than offset a weakening in net trade. However, we expect the economy to slow over the remainder of... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Service sector keeps the recovery alive Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that, despite losing some momentum, the economic recovery was still making progress at the start of Q2. And we think there is still scope for further improvement... 29th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany leads euro-zone into recession The downward revision to Germany’s first-quarter GDP data means its economy contracted by 0.8ppts during Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, leaving it much smaller than it was before the pandemic. What’s more, the... 26th May 2023 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic growth may have been weaker than thought This week’s upward revision to first-quarter GDP growth, to 1.3% annualised from 1.1%, suggests the economy had marginally more momentum than previously thought. But, in stark contrast, the first... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending, Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Apr.) 26th May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Answers to your questions on China’s slowdown Challenges to China’s long-run growth potential that were mounting a few years ago are now evident to all. We continue to expect trend growth to have fallen to around 2% in 2030. 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak start to Q2, hawkish BoK, Vietnam rate cut Recent national accounts data confirmed that most economies struggled in the first quarter of the year. The latest monthly activity data suggest that Q2 is shaping up to be another weak quarter... 26th May 2023 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Demonetisation redux? The RBI's announcement that it is withdrawing the INR2,000 note is likely to have evoked memories of the shock demonetisation exercise in 2016. But the economic impact should be much more limited this... 26th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Latest EM elections raise policy risks The results of elections in major EMs over the past month have increased macroeconomic policy risks. Most notably in Turkey, President Erdogan now has the edge ahead of a second-round presidential... 25th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s imbalanced recovery can’t be sustained Colombia’s very strong post-pandemic recovery has come at the expense of a build-up of large macroeconomic imbalances and a period of below-trend growth is needed to reduce these vulnerabilities. The... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German GDP (Q1, 2nd est.) The downward revision to Germany’s Q1 GDP means that the country has fallen into a technical recession and that euro-zone GDP probably stagnated in Q1 rather than expanding by 0.1% q/q. We expect... 25th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore set to struggle in 2023 Singapore’s economy is being hit hard by multi-decade high interest rates and elevated inflation. And with external demand set to weaken, we expect growth to be much weaker than consensus projections. 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read