Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar.) While retail sales values rose at a decent pace in March, we estimate that sales volumes fell the most since 2021’s lockdowns last quarter and that weakness has further to run. That in turn should... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month was due to a jump in inventories, while other indicators pointed to further weakness in the sector. The country’s severe energy crisis continued... 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP growth turned positive in Q1 after four consecutive quarters of decline. The economy rebounded more rapidly than anticipated, largely thanks to the swift return of foreign visitors as... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1 2023) & Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The 0.1% q/q expansion in Czech GDP in Q1 means that the economy avoided remaining in a technical recession by the skin of its teeth, but we think that growth will still disappoint consensus... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade and Inflation (Apr.) A simple average of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Asia rose slightly in April but this was almost entirely driven by a large jump in Thailand’s headline index to a record high. Weak global demand and... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) The ongoing rebound in house prices is living on borrowed time. With affordability extremely stretched and the economy poised for a sharp downturn, we’re sticking to our forecast that house prices... 2nd May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Q1 GDP growth muted; Q2 will be worse Although underlying activity growth rebounded in the first quarter, while wage and price inflation remained too high, we expect the second quarter to bring a sharper slowdown across the board. 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining vacancies should soothe Bank’s nerves The Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations suggests it was closer to resuming interest rate hikes in April than we thought. Nonetheless, as the data releases this week showed a fall in the job... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy stagnant; new fiscal rules some way off Data released on Friday confirmed that the euro-zone economy was broadly stagnant in Q4 and Q1. Meanwhile, the European Commission’s proposed new fiscal rules will need further changes before member... 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Auto rebound unlikely to last, new currency forecasts Automotive production across Asia, which was badly hit during the pandemic by a shortage of semiconductor components, is now rebounding rapidly as this constraint unwinds. This is providing a boost to... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The small rise in GDP in February points to healthy first-quarter growth but, with the preliminary estimate pointing to a contraction in March and activity set to suffer in April due to the federal... 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Mar.) Growth in India’s core infrastructure industries slowed in March, indicating that some of the resilience in the industrial sector at the start of the year may be fading. Domestic and external... 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Prov.) The 1.1% q/q rise in Mexican GDP in Q1 marked a pick-up from the end of last year, but a fresh slowdown is on the cards as a recession in the US and tight policy at home will take their toll. 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) The very small increase in GDP in Q1 means a technical recession has been avoided by a whisker. However, the economy has essentially stalled as domestic demand has been hit hard by the energy shock... 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1) Taiwan’s GDP contracted sharply in the first quarter of the year, as a slump in exports put the economy into a technical recession. We think the economy will struggle over the coming quarters as weak... 28th April 2023 · 3 mins read