Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The fall in the South African manufacturing PMI in May leaves it at a level consistent with modest falls in output in the sector. And the collapse in the future conditions component suggests that... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May across Emerging Europe were either flat, or edged up slightly, providing further evidence that the worst of the regional downturn is probably now behind us. That said... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing sector creates headaches for the RBA Although house prices in Australia made further gains in May, we don't think that's a sign that the broader economy will remain resilient in the face of monetary tightening. Indeed, residential... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) India’s manufacturing PMI reading rose in May to a 31-month high and points to very healthy growth in the sector. But the survey also shows that price pressures are well past the peak, supporting our... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May.) Manufacturing PMIs declined in most countries in Emerging Asia. Weak demand and elevated inventory levels are likely to continue to weigh on manufacturing output in Asia over the coming quarters. 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The continued growth of Russian industrial production and retail sales in April suggests that the strength of activity seen in Q1 continued at the start of Q2. This momentum is likely to be sustained... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1) The larger-than-expected 3.1% annualised rise in first-quarter GDP and the strong preliminary estimate in April boost the case for another interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada, which could come... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) GDP data for Q1 (Q4 of FY22/23) show that India’s economy rebounded at the start of the year. But with higher interest rates still feeding through and fiscal policy turning slightly less supportive... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Current account positions improve, but risks remain There has been further evidence over the past month that resilient export growth, weak domestic demand and lower energy prices have helped to improve current account positions across Central and... 31st May 2023 · 15 mins read
India Economics Focus India and the physical risks from climate change India’s economy is one of the most vulnerable in the world to the physical effects of climate change. Climate change alone won’t stop relatively rapid rates of growth over the coming decades. But it... 31st May 2023 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2023) Turkey’s economy shrugged off the impact of the earthquakes in February and grew by 0.3% q/q (4.0% y/y) in Q1. GDP growth is likely to remain soft in q/q terms this year, but a continuation of... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to lift rates to 4.35% by July With inflation set to overshoot the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts this quarter, we’re now pencilling in two more 25bp rate hikes, including one at the upcoming meeting on 6th June. And we don... 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (May) The PMI surveys suggest that China’s economic recovery was still ongoing in May. Waning fiscal support weighed on construction activity. But manufacturing output ticked up and the service sector is... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 23) April’s activity data were a mixed bag. The fall in industrial production and sharp drop in retail sales volumes pose downside risks to our Q2 GDP growth forecast. By contrast, capital goods shipments... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone construction set to weaken We think that the slump in demand for mortgages will more than offset the support from the high backlog of work and result in a sizeable contraction in euro-zone construction output in the coming... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read