UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The renewed fall in the flash UK composite PMI in January suggests that some of the resilience in economic activity towards the back end of 2022 petered out in early 2023. That supports our view that... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The increase in the flash euro-zone Composite PMI for January left it consistent with the economy roughly stagnating. With employment intentions and price pressures still high, there is nothing here... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to much slower employment growth The sharp fall in hiring intentions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey suggests that the 104,000 surge in employment in December is not a sign of things to come. The survey points to a... 23rd January 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.0% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in December was much worse than both we and the consensus (+0.5% m/m) had expected. That meant sales volumes fell 1.3% q/q in Q4 and were a disappointing 5.4%... 20th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong income growth in New Zealand won’t last The resignation of New Zealand’s Prime Minister opens the door for the opposition to return to power, who have signalled looser policy at a time when government spending is already around record highs... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Weakness spreads to the hard activity data First came the inversion of the yield curve. Next the index of leading indicators began to fall. Then the survey-based activity indicators plunged well below the 50 mark. Finally, this week we learned... 19th January 2023 · 10 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales in December, which followed a downwardly-revised 1.0% fall in November, adds to the evidence from the surveys that the economy was losing momentum towards the end of... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Global fracturing: India tilts further away from China India has historically remained unaligned geopolitically but we made the case last year that, in a fracturing global economy, it was more likely to lean towards a US-led bloc and away from a China-led... 18th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey & Final HICP (Jan./Dec.) Economic sentiment in Germany improved further at the start of 2023 adding to the signs that the economy will hold up better than we feared. But with underlying price pressures still rising, tight... 17th January 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly No wall of money but still plenty of upside for spending Tuesday’s retail sales data are likely to show that spending plunged as COVID crashed through China last month. But December was an age ago. The focus for investors now is on the speed of the recovery... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recent good news doesn’t preclude DM recessions The past month has brought a string of positive developments on the activity and inflation side. The biggest news has been China’s decision to throw in the towel on its zero-COVID policy, which... 13th January 2023 · 13 mins read
China Economics Update A faster-than-expected turnaround We had expected disruption from China’s reopening wave of COVID infections to weigh heavily on activity well into Q1. But there is mounting evidence that much of China’s population has already been... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
