China Economics Weekly Don’t give up on the Chinese consumer just yet The pessimism around China’s consumer recovery is overdone in our view. The labour market is tightening, which should soon start to benefit young jobseekers and support income growth. And consumers... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 23) April’s activity data were a mixed bag. The fall in industrial production and sharp drop in retail sales volumes pose downside risks to our Q2 GDP growth forecast. By contrast, capital goods shipments... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi unlikely to revisit last year’s lows The renminbi strengthened sharply against the US dollar in response to China’s move away from zero-COVID. But the currency has since reversed much of those gains and is now approaching 7.10/$, its... 30th May 2023 · 12 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr. 2023) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in April suggests that higher interest rates are not yet taking a toll on spending. While the worst of the declines in retail sales volumes are in the past... 26th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 23) Coupled with rising unemployment and lukewarm wage growth, the weakness in retail sales in April supports our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia is done hiking interest rates. 26th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Latest EM elections raise policy risks The results of elections in major EMs over the past month have increased macroeconomic policy risks. Most notably in Turkey, President Erdogan now has the edge ahead of a second-round presidential... 25th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Too soon to sound the all-clear for construction The turnaround in the housing market, with sales and prices rebounding in April, has raised hopes that construction will hold up despite elevated borrowing costs. Media reports suggest that buyer... 24th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 2023) May’s flash PMI readings were the strongest they’d been in a while and point to gains in both industrial production and services spending, supporting our assessment that the economy continued to grow... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Policymakers can breathe easier on inflation The past month has brought some encouraging news on the inflation front. Consumer price inflation dropped sharply in April to an 18-month low, keeping the headline rate comfortably within the RBI’s 2... 22nd May 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The fall in retail sales in March was driven mainly by lower vehicle sales. Overall sales volumes still rose by 4.9% annualised last quarter, suggesting that a pick-up in consumption supported GDP... 19th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession and higher prices to sink spending in H2 Stubborn price pressures and a recession in the second half mean real disposable incomes are set to continue shrinking through year-end. With the savings rate now barely higher than it was pre... 19th May 2023 · 5 mins read
