US Economics Weekly Powell and payrolls to clarify rate outlook The February employment report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress next week should give a clearer indication of whether recent talk of interest rates going “higher for longer” is... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Private consumption will weaken further this year While Q4 GDP was broadly in line in with our expectations, the details show that the Australian consumer is on weaker ground than we had thought. The confluence of falling real disposable incomes... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending to strengthen Household spending in Saudi Arabia appeared to soften in the final months of 2022, but surveys suggest that consumers are optimistic about the outlook. The backdrop of loose fiscal policy, an improved... 1st March 2023 · 4 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Feb.) The latest survey data are exceptionally strong across the board, consistent with our expectation for a rapid near-term rebound. We expect this recovery to lose momentum later in the year but the... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4 22) & CPI Indicator (Jan. 23) GDP growth softened last quarter and inflation slowed sharply in January. But with inflation still very high, that won’t prevent the RBA from hiking the cash rate to a peak of 4.1% in May. 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pandemic savings won’t rescue the economy The value of savings that households built up during the pandemic has been wiped out by inflation. Rising interest rates, together with a desire to rebuild the spending power of their savings, suggest... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jan. 2023) & GDP Partials (Q4 2022) While retail sales bounced back in January, the rebound probably won’t be enough to prevent a contraction in sales volumes across the first quarter. 28th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan. 23) We suspect that the early start to the Lunar New Year was partly responsible for the sharp fall in industrial production in January and there should be a strong rebound in February. Meanwhile, retail... 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan. 23) 27th February 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Politics and the public finances Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, are both facing slow-burning debt problems. In Nigeria at least, elections on Saturday offer an opportunity to shift towards... 24th February 2023 · 12 mins read
US Chart Pack January strength unlikely to last The resurgence in activity and employment in January means that there is little chance of the economy falling into recession in the first quarter and we now expect GDP growth of 1.5% annualised. That... 21st February 2023 · 10 mins read
India Chart Pack Adani spill-over risks: not out of the woods yet In a crowded field given the FY23/24 Union Budget and the RBI’s more-hawkish-than-expected policy announcement, the Adani short-selling crisis has been the main story over the past month. So far at... 21st February 2023 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) The much smaller rise in core prices in January suggests that headline inflation will fall faster than the Bank of Canada expects, reinforcing our view that the Bank is unlikely to resume raising... 21st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) The ZEW indicators point to a further improvement in sentiment towards Germany and, along with other recent surveys, suggest that the economy is holding up better than we had anticipated. 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
