Canada Chart Pack Construction the next shoe to drop The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000... 24th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Signs of resilience, but recession still likely Growing domestic and external headwinds have taken a bigger toll on the region’s economies in recent months, with growth slowing sharply in Turkey and Israel in Q3 and GDP contracting outright in... 24th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in November does not change the big picture that the German economy is likely to contract in Q4. 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (November) 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Resilient monthly data do not change gloomy outlook Recent monthly data from the advanced economies have tended to exceed analysts’ gloomy expectations. This is partly due to an easing of supply shortages, which could offer some further support to... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic resilience won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of consumer spending is keeping hopes of a soft landing alive. Although GDP growth looks to have slowed in the fourth quarter, and most leading indicators of recession are flashing red... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The small fall in retail sales volumes in September appears to have been reversed in October but, more generally, sales volumes have been little changed for the past six months and the low leve of... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Surging inflation won’t last Headline inflation shot up to 3.7% y/y in October, the strongest since December 1990 while inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose from 1.8% to 2.5%. Although this puts inflation well above the... 21st November 2022 · 11 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales volumes was larger than both we (0.0% m/m) and the consensus (+0.2% m/m) had expected. Sales volumes were probably supported by the reversal of bank holiday effects... 18th November 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) The October data point to a further loss of momentum, with retail sales dropping sharply amid worsening virus outbreaks. November is shaping up to be even worse. With exports cooling, the property... 15th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Upside surprises to Q3 GDP not a sign of things to come Many of the Q3 GDP releases of early-reporting economies have beaten consensus expectations in the past few weeks, especially in Europe. Not only did energy-crisis-laden Germany grow in Q3, rather... 11th November 2022 · 13 mins read
