Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s retail sales data show that the sector ended 2022 on a weak note. We think total household consumption will fall in the first half of this year, pulling the economy into recession. 6th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Dec. 2022) Retail sales volumes declined last quarter on the back of a weaker-than-expected end to 2022. A solid increase in services spending means overall consumption should still have risen at a decent clip... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Consumers reopen their wallets The Lunar New Year holiday wasn’t quite back to normal this year as fears of spreading COVID to elderly relatives prevented many households from returning to their hometowns – long-distance journeys... 30th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) The improvement in economic sentiment in January is consistent with the picture painted by other surveys. But the high level of firms’ selling price expectations shows that the ECB’s work is far from... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers: now feeling the pinch Consumer spending in emerging markets initially recovered quickly from the pandemic, but it looks like high interest rates and inflation caused spending growth to slow sharply over the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The renewed fall in the flash UK composite PMI in January suggests that some of the resilience in economic activity towards the back end of 2022 petered out in early 2023. That supports our view that... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The increase in the flash euro-zone Composite PMI for January left it consistent with the economy roughly stagnating. With employment intentions and price pressures still high, there is nothing here... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to much slower employment growth The sharp fall in hiring intentions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey suggests that the 104,000 surge in employment in December is not a sign of things to come. The survey points to a... 23rd January 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.0% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in December was much worse than both we and the consensus (+0.5% m/m) had expected. That meant sales volumes fell 1.3% q/q in Q4 and were a disappointing 5.4%... 20th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong income growth in New Zealand won’t last The resignation of New Zealand’s Prime Minister opens the door for the opposition to return to power, who have signalled looser policy at a time when government spending is already around record highs... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Weakness spreads to the hard activity data First came the inversion of the yield curve. Next the index of leading indicators began to fall. Then the survey-based activity indicators plunged well below the 50 mark. Finally, this week we learned... 19th January 2023 · 10 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales in December, which followed a downwardly-revised 1.0% fall in November, adds to the evidence from the surveys that the economy was losing momentum towards the end of... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Global fracturing: India tilts further away from China India has historically remained unaligned geopolitically but we made the case last year that, in a fracturing global economy, it was more likely to lean towards a US-led bloc and away from a China-led... 18th January 2023 · 9 mins read