China Economic Outlook Bumpy road before zero-COVID is left behind The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear... 9th December 2022 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growth slowdown will dampen price pressures Australia’s economy continued to expand at a robust pace last quarter and there are mounting signs that the tight labour market is boosting wage growth. That suggests that the RBA isn’t done... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Moderate recession to drive inflation lower The economy is heading for a moderate recession, as higher interest rates weigh on domestic demand and exports contract amid the global downturn. Weaker demand, together with lower commodity prices... 8th December 2022 · 20 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Firmer evidence of easing price pressures Data over the past month have brought the clearest signs yet that inflation is starting to ease. Our estimate of world CPI inflation fell for the first time in 15 months in October, from 7.9% to 7.7%... 7th December 2022 · 12 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Oct. 22) Labour cash earnings increased by a slower 1.8% y/y in October due mostly to a much smaller gain in volatile bonus payments. However, real wage losses have extended for a seventh consecutive month and... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall rapidly in 2023, as recession bites We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment... 5th December 2022 · 24 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) The sharp drop in euro-zone retail spending in October is consistent with our view that – notwithstanding the slight uptick in some business surveys recently – the economy is entering recession. With... 5th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too early to declare victory on inflation The financial markets have scaled back their expectations for the peak in the cash rate following soft data on consumer spending and inflation. But while inflation will peak at slightly lower levels... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
China Chart Pack Early preparations to exit zero-COVID Concrete signs of an effort to exit from zero-COVID are emerging, with a notice today of a push to vaccinate the elderly. The low level of vaccine coverage of the most vulnerable is, along with a lack... 29th November 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey and Spain HICP (November) The small increase in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for November suggests that prospects for the euro-zone economy may no longer be deteriorating. We still expect a recession, but it is... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Retail Sales (Oct. 22) The unemployment rate stayed unchanged in August and will hover around 2.5% through 2023 due to a looming economic recession. Meanwhile, retail sales values barely grew in October from September and... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2022) Following a strong eight consecutive rises since the start of the year, the decline in retail sales in October isn’t a disaster. A fall in sales volumes across Q4 now looks very likely but we suspect... 28th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 22) 28th November 2022 · 2 mins read
