China Economics Update Rare drop in household wealth will cap recovery Bank deposits held by Chinese households have soared over the past year. But that mostly reflects a shift out of riskier assets rather than a surge in savings. In fact, our calculations show that... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy starts the year on a strong footing Echoing the unexpectedly large increase in payroll employment last month, January’s retail sales and manufacturing output data were unquestionably strong too. Admittedly, retail sales appear to have... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The rebound in retail sales in January was better than expected, had echoes of the leap in US retail sales and suggests that the festive/new year period wasn’t a complete write-off. But while 2023 is... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Pandemic recovery helped prevent recession The UK avoided a recession last year partly because of more spending by households on restaurants and trains and partly because of more investment by businesses in aircraft, cars and cruise ships... 16th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recessions postponed, not cancelled A raft of strong data out of the US have poured cold water on the idea that its economy has tumbled into recession at the start of 2023. And this comes after GDP data revealed that the euro-zone and... 16th February 2023 · 13 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The massive 3.0% m/m surge in retail sales in January may have been partly related to the unseasonably mild winter in the Northeast but, alongside the unexpected strength of payroll employment, it... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack YCC still set to end with Ueda at the helm The government formally nominated Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan Governor at yesterday’s Diet session. Since the initial announcement of his candidature last Friday, analysts and investors have... 15th February 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook is less grim, but recession still likely Since the full effects of the previous surge in energy prices and the hike in interest rates have yet to be felt, we still think the economy will succumb to a recession this year. Admittedly, pandemic... 8th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Jan. 2023) Current readings dipped slightly in January’s Economy Watchers Survey but the jump in outlook readings suggests spending growth this quarter will still be decent. 8th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Tighter monetary policy starting to bite The latest business surveys suggest that the euro-zone will stagnate or suffer only a mild recession, but the money and credit data paint a much gloomier picture. Net lending was negative in December... 7th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s retail sales data show that the sector ended 2022 on a weak note. We think total household consumption will fall in the first half of this year, pulling the economy into recession. 6th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Dec. 2022) Retail sales volumes declined last quarter on the back of a weaker-than-expected end to 2022. A solid increase in services spending means overall consumption should still have risen at a decent clip... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Consumers reopen their wallets The Lunar New Year holiday wasn’t quite back to normal this year as fears of spreading COVID to elderly relatives prevented many households from returning to their hometowns – long-distance journeys... 30th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) The improvement in economic sentiment in January is consistent with the picture painted by other surveys. But the high level of firms’ selling price expectations shows that the ECB’s work is far from... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers: now feeling the pinch Consumer spending in emerging markets initially recovered quickly from the pandemic, but it looks like high interest rates and inflation caused spending growth to slow sharply over the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
