China Economics Update Talk of major policy shift toward RMB devaluation overblown By setting a lower mid-point for the renminbi’s trading band the People’s Bank has sparked speculation that it is embarking on a competitive devaluation of the currency in order to shore up exports... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Longstanding error still exaggerating GDP growth China’s statistics bureau responded today to our argument that glitches in the way it calculates GDP have caused it to overstate growth in recent quarters. It has not laid our doubts to rest. 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China’s impact on the world Structural changes in China’s economy are transforming its economic relationship with the rest of the world, as domestic demand shifts from investment to consumption, outbound tourism surges and the... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China puts faith in market meddling China’s leadership has doubled down on its efforts to prop up equity prices because it believes that its own credibility is now coupled to continued gains on the markets. 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Severe demographic headwinds to hold back Hong Kong Hong Kong has both the highest life expectancy and the lowest birth rate in the world. One consequence is that Hong Kong’s working age population is set to decline by more than that of any other... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More evidence GDP growth overstated Flaws in how China’s GDP data are calculated exaggerated both the downward pressure on prices in the first quarter and the rate at which the economy is growing. 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the People’s Bank about to launch QE? Unconfirmed reports that the People’s Bank is considering buying local government bonds have sparked talk of impending QE in China. That’s wide of the mark: unlike with asset purchase programs... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we fear deflation in China? The slide in inflation in China, as elsewhere, has been driven primarily by commodity price falls due to increases in global supply. It is unambiguously positive for China’s economy. Evidence that... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How durable is the Hong Kong peg? The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision last week to abandon its exchange rate ceiling has put Hong Kong’s peg to the US dollar under fresh scrutiny. While the peg creates a number of problems, it... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's GDP set for statistical boost The government is tomorrow likely to announce an upward revision of perhaps 5~10% to its estimate of the size of China’s economy. Nothing will have changed on the ground, but the data revisions will... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Property to remain a drag despite looser mortgage controls Those hoping that a loosening of mortgage controls, announced by the People’s Bank yesterday, will set the stage for a recovery in the property sector are likely to be disappointed. Relatively tight... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is the level of borrowing costs in China a problem? Cuts to benchmark interest rates could end up doing more harm than good to China’s economy. Policymakers worried about elevated financing costs in the corporate sector would do better to focus on... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update FX reserves are no magic bullet in a debt crisis The foreign exchange reserves of the People’s Bank would be of little use in the event of a debt or banking crisis in China. The bulk of the costs of any clean-up would ultimately still be paid by the... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Local government dependence on property exaggerated The ongoing slowdown in the property sector is hitting land sales, which some have suggested has worrying implications for local government finances. We think the risks are being exaggerated and that... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A Chinese hard landing: Which Asian countries are most at risk? A hard landing in China’s economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of Emerging Asia. A slump in Chinese demand would hurt economies with close trade links to China, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is consumption being undercounted? A growing number of economists are challenging the view that China invests too much and consumes too little by arguing that the official data grossly understate consumption and overstate investment... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
