China Economics Weekly The “lose-lose” behind China’s self-sufficiency push A push to raise China’s self-sufficiency in key technology sectors looks likely to be a theme of the new Five-Year Plan that the leadership will discuss at next week’s Plenum. Many commentators appear... 23rd October 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Government bonds to rally in the coming years FTSE Russell yesterday announced that it will include China in its World Government Bond Index (WGBI). The resulting shift in passive funds could more than double foreign inflows into Chinese... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly What if Chinese banks are cut off from SWIFT? Financial decoupling between the US and China could be far more disruptive to both China and the global economy than anything the Trump administration has attempted so far. But much of what is... 30th July 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Xi’s “new development model” is more of the same In the face of growing tensions with much of the world, Xi Jinping this week called for a “new development model” that allows China’s economy to sustain rapid growth with less dependence on other... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly The cost of going it “alone” Recent developments in Hong Kong and along the border with India are putting further strain on China’s relations with the rest of the world and accelerating the process of decoupling. This will make... 3rd July 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s stimulus plans and the implications for growth The fiscal plans unveiled by China’s leadership today are as expansive as those in 2009 but credit growth will remain far more constrained. The focus again is overwhelmingly on measures to boost... 22nd May 2020 · 17 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the NPC The 2020 growth target (or lack of one!) will be announced next Friday at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and will signal how confident the leadership is in a strong rebound and the degree to... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Output down by a fifth in Q1 The latest data point to a 20% q/q contraction in GDP this quarter (-16% y/y), even on the official figures. Given the shock to incomes and employment, the continued concern about the threat of... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Can the virus be contained with little economic pain? Some countries have managed to control the new coronavirus without large-scale quarantines or economic shutdowns. But they have achieved this by preventing the virus from spreading within the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Extended shutdown deepening economic contraction With normal activity taking longer to recover than seemed likely earlier this month, we now think that China’s economy will contract outright in year-on-year terms this quarter, for the first time... 26th February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus The economic impact of the new coronavirus in China China’s economy is likely to contract sharply in the first quarter, as a result of the measures that have been taken to limit the spread of the new coronavirus. The apparent slowdown in new infections... 12th February 2020 · 16 mins read
China Economics Update Coronavirus: What to watch in the coming days Data due in the next week or so should give a better sense of how badly economic activity has been hit by the outbreak. And given the incubation period of the virus, the effectiveness of the... 4th February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus The Phase One deal and its impact on China The trade deal between the US and China marks an end to the first phase of the trade war. China’s pledges on imports from the US are unlikely to be met but that may not matter to the deal’s long-term... 15th January 2020 · 11 mins read
China Economics Focus China Property Handbook China’s property sector is central to its economic performance, its demand for many materials and the stability of its financial system. In this updated and expanded Handbook, we discuss the drivers... 9th December 2019 · 41 mins read
China Economics Update The PBOC’s inflation dilemma The People’s Bank is powerless to stop consumer price inflation jumping above its target without undermining its broader mandate to support growth and employment. Given this trade-off we expect the... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
