China Economics Update Could Hong Kong’s peg survive a speculative attack? A shift in market expectations about China’s exchange rate has put Hong Kong’s peg to the US dollar under fresh scrutiny. But despite the surge in speculation, we think the peg will stay for years to... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long can the PBOC hold on? The willingness of the People’s Bank to sell over $100bn of foreign exchange reserves last month is a measure of its belief that a stable currency is in China’s interests and that current downward... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Further signs that the economy is turning a corner China’s activity data for November provide further evidence that policy easing has helped to stabilise the economy. We continue to expect conditions to improve over the coming months. 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update SDR inclusion unlikely to boost renminbi demand The IMF’s decision to include the renminbi in the SDR basket will not directly increase demand for renminbi assets. The implicit endorsement of the renminbi as a reserve asset is unlikely to sway the... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The implications for China of deposit rate liberalisation When the PBOC cut benchmark interest rates late last month, it also removed the regulatory ceiling on banks’ deposit rates. This final step in liberalising interest rates came sooner than many had... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Plenum fails to resolve tension between reform and growth goals A communique released after the conclusion of the Fifth Plenum provides a glimpse at the contents of the upcoming Five-Year Plan. It suggests that policymakers are not wavering on their reform... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Abolition of one-child policy does not alter growth outlook The abolition of China’s controversial one-child policy may have grabbed plenty of headlines, but the economic impact of the move will be small. 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What should we expect from China’s new Five-Year Plan? China’s leadership is likely to use its forthcoming Five-Year Plan to signal that it is not wavering on the need for structural reform. In fact, progress over the first three years of President Xi's... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Official GDP data set to remain political tool We shouldn’t expect China to have a statistical system as robust as those in the developed world. But the problems in China go beyond those normally found in an emerging economy. The biggest is that... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shanghai-London Stock Connect, more hype than substance It is likely to be a long time before any “Shanghai-London Stock Connect” scheme gets off the groundand even when it does the impact will be small. 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Revised GDP data as open to question as before China’s statistics bureau last week announced changes to how its GDP figures are compiled. In principle, the shift should improve the precision of the data. In practice, the changes to historical real... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update SOE reform plan falls short China’s latest proposals to shake-up state-owned industry are underwhelming. We expect the economy to continue growing at decent rates over the years ahead, but believe this will happen in spite of... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Little chance of a Hong Kong de-pegging Although there has been a surge of speculation in the wake of China’s exchange rate move that Hong Kong could abandon its US dollar peg, we expect the peg to remain in place well into the next decade. 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Can India capitalise on its demographic dividend? The UN’s projection that India will become the world’s most populous nation as soon as 2022 has refocused attention on the country’s remarkable demographic potential and the impact this could have on... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Panic about China is overblown Investors are over reacting about economic risks in China. The collapse of the equity bubble tells us next to nothing about the state of China’s economy. In fact, recent data have been more positive... 24th August 2015 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China is not declaring a “currency war” A second downward adjustment to the renminbi reference rate today suggests that policymakers are now more willing to give in to market forces than we had previously thought. That said, we still think... 12th August 2015 · 4 mins read
