China Economics Update Are China’s exporters struggling to compete? The recent slide of the renminbi and February’s weak exports have been linked by some to a supposed loss of competitiveness in China’s export sector. In fact, despite rapid wage growth and trend... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why the hukou matters less than many think There has been some disappointment since the Third Plenum that the Party is not moving faster to reform the hukou household registration system. This may not matter much for the economy – the... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will we know if the Plenum reforms are on track? The Third Plenum provided an impressive statement of reform intentions but it changed nothing on the ground. What signposts can we look for to gauge how rapidly new policies are being implemented? 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reform package exceeds expectations The underwhelming Communiqué released after the Third Plenum on Tuesday raised big questions about whether the leadership had been able to get backing for a meaningful package of reforms. On the basis... 15th November 2013 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update How important is the Shanghai Free Trade Zone? The free trade zone about to be set up in Shanghai is intended as a testing ground for new policies, with a focus on liberalising the service sector, and financial services in particular. Successful... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A brief primer on China's interbank market China’s cash crunch has shone a spotlight on its interbank market, which investors without a close interest in China’s banking and financial sector previously paid little attention to. In this month’s... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Why are China's banks stockpiling foreign exchange? With the People’s Bank determined to limit renminbi appreciation but reluctant to add to its foreign currency reserves, China’s commercial banks have taken on the role of the economy’s foreign... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Who will lead China? China’s once-in-a-decade leadership transition reaches a climax in November when a new generation takes control of the Party. In this China Watch, we ask who the key figures of the new leadership are... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is slower growth here to stay? China’s economic slowdown is the result of policy tightening and weak global demand but it also reflects structural shifts in China’s economy. As a result, expectations for a strong and sustained... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Ten key questions about China’s property market China’s economic prospects depend in large part on what happens to its property market. In this Focus, we answer the key questions on affordability, empty housing and over-investment that will... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can we trust the data? Questions are again being asked about whether we can trust China’s economic data. Our attempts to track the speed of the economy using our China Activity Proxy do not support suggestions of widespread... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Questions over credibility of China’s budget China’s budget planners have a history of wildly underestimating revenue growth, usually making actual net spending by the government far less supportive to the economy than originally planned. The... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China facing a property market collapse? Property developers in China are facing a grim year ahead, with a likely slump in project starts set to drag on broader economic growth. The sector should nonetheless be able to avoid a collapse... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How could China help the rest of the world? China has room to stimulate demand in the event of a slump in growth and could also play a role in stabilising global markets. But there is less space for a major stimulus today than in 2008. As then... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is investment-driven growth running out of steam? China’s investment-driven economic model is not showing signs of strain at present but growth is unlikely to be as smooth as most expect over the next few years. We have pencilled in a well-below... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can Asia avoid the middle-income trap? Most of emerging Asia should continue to grow rapidly for at least another decade, and much longer if the right policy choices are made. The key exception is China where, despite a bright long-run... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
