India Economics Focus Is India finally coming of age? Talk of India’s potential to become the “next China” is inevitable given their enormous populations, and will intensify as China’s economy slows. Those hoping that India can match China’s former rates... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress China’s retention of an “about 6.5%” growth target for GDP in 2018, while expected, undermines the argument that growth is being demoted as a central policy concern. Growth is likely to slow we... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update President for life? The removal of the two-term limit on China’s president is the clearest sign yet that Xi Jinping is reversing China’s reform era shift toward more institutionalised and rule-based politics. The quality... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How would China fight a trade war? If the long-running skirmishes between the US and China were to escalate into a trade war, China would try to occupy the moral high ground by portraying itself as a defender of free trade. At the time... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A refresher on China’s monetary policy framework With the People’s Bank last week tweaking the interest rates on its open market operations, it seems timely to highlight some of the peculiarities of China’s monetary policy framework. One key one is... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Are India’s banks in the clear? The recapitalisation package recently announced by the government is the most significant measure yet to tidy up India’s beleaguered banking system and should all but enable India’s banks to meet... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China Property Handbook China’s property sector is crucial to the economy’s performance and to China’s demand for many materials. In this Focus, we discuss the drivers of the property cycle and answer the key questions on... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update GDP targets here to stay Official talk about prioritising the “quality” of economic growth over speed has sparked speculation that the government may stop setting GDP targets. Unfortunately we think they are here to stay. 22nd November 2017 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Xi is prioritising politics over market opening The Party Congress kicked off today with the Report delivered by Xi Jinping. His ability to emphasise his contributions to Communist Party doctrine over those his predecessors hints at a successful... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus The Party Congress - a Primer The upcoming Party Congress will deliver a major reshuffle of China’s leadership and determine President Xi Jinping’s ability to implement his policy priorities over the next five years. In this... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would a stronger Xi be good for the economy? Reform implementation is likely to accelerate after the Party Congress, particularly if President Xi emerges in a stronger position. But given Xi’s reluctance to relinquish state control over key... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we expect a post-Congress shift in the policy agenda? With President Xi already firmly in charge of setting the government’s economic agenda, we don’t anticipate any major changes in policy goals after next month’s Party Congress. That said, a stronger... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Party Congress work report to offer early hints of Xi’s power Anticipation is building ahead of next month’s Party Congress, which is widely seen as a potential watershed in policymaking if it results in President Xi successfully consolidating his power. The... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What’s going on with the Hong Kong dollar? While other currencies have recently been rising against the US dollar, the Hong Kong dollar has been sliding to historic lows, albeit within the narrow confines of its currency peg. This is the... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus 20 years on: assessing the past and future of Hong Kong 1st July marks the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to China. The city’s economy has continued to prosper over the last two decades, defying gloomy predictions made by some before the handover... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Problems continue to brew at Chinese banks The outlook for China’s banks is going from bad to worse. Pressure on the banking system has increased during the past year even though economic activity has recovered. And with a renewed slowdown now... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
