China Economics Focus Unravelling the mystery of China’s trade data China’s trade surplus looks much smaller from within the country than it does from abroad. China’s customs data put the goods surplus last year at 3% of GDP. China’s trading partners reported a... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property tax falls short of (low) expectations The property tax plans that were announced yesterday look more like token measures than serious attempts to dampen property market speculation or provide local governments with a secure source of... 28th January 2011 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus What lessons should China learn from Japan's lost decade? Today’s tensions between China and the US have many echoes of those between Japan and the US in the 1980s including, most clearly, over the exchange rate. The lesson for China is not, as some have... 8th November 2010 · 14 mins read
China Economics Update The RMB as an international currency: don't believe the hype The government has announced a series of moves over the last month designed to push the renminbi along the road to becoming an international currency. But major obstacles stand in the way, not least... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s impossible trinity China is seeking to rein in bank lending and hold to a conservative fiscal stance while maintaining rapid economic growth. It cannot do all three. 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is China running out of cheap workers? China no longer has a surplus of underemployed workers in the countryside willing to move elsewhere for rock bottom wages, but it does still have a large and inefficient agricultural workforce. Their... 29th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Seven misconceptions about China We find it increasingly hard to recognise the inflation-ridden, bubble-filled China that we read about in the newspapers. Popular consensus seems to be settling on the view that China is overheating... 16th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China gearing up for its own lost decade? There are many parallels between the current lending boom in China and that in the late-1980s which brought down Japan’s economy. But there are several reasons to think China will avoid the same fate. 18th November 2009 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus A new angle on Chinese growth A little-noticed report published last week by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) gives arguably the best estimate yet of how much China’s economy slowed at the end of last year and how rapidly it has... 7th August 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Could SDRs supplant the dollar? IMF Special Drawing Rights will not emerge as a reserve asset to challenge the dollar, but they could be used to reduce the risks of a destabilising flight by reserve holders from the US currency. 14th July 2009 · 33 mins read
China Economics Update Is political stability assured in China? The ongoing ethnic violence in China’s Xinjiang province has far more in common with last year’s unrest in Tibet than the Tiananmen Square demonstrations two decades ago. Investors will shrug it off... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is China running out of steam after 30 years of reform? Thirty years after the launch of reform in China, the experience of Japan and the Asian tigers underlines the need for China to shift its economic model if it is to sustain rapid growth over the... 24th November 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China’s fiscal package may not be quite what it seems China’s announcement of a huge fiscal stimulus package is an attempt to shock and awe Chinese firms and households to keep spending. If it succeeds, the government will end up spending much less than... 10th November 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus What role can fiscal policy play in rebalancing China's economy? Fiscal policy could make a significant contribution to reducing China’s massive current account surplus, though discussion of rebalancing often overlooks its potential. The government has the... 17th April 2008 · 1 min read
