Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3), Pol. CPI (Oct.) & Turkey Current Acc. (Sep.) Russia’s economy performed better than even we had expected in Q3, but this predates the most recent slump in oil prices. We still expect the economy to slip into recession next year. Elsewhere... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Credit bubbles deflate – but at the cost of weaker growth There are encouraging signs that the credit bubbles that had been building in a handful of major EMs are now deflating. But this process has only just begun – and the modest slowdown in credit that we... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank quashes hopes for looser policy The accompanying statement to today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left on hold, is likely to quash hopes that have been growing in some quarters for looser policy in response to... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish government too upbeat on growth and inflation Turkey’s recently-published 2015-17 Medium-Term Programme shows that the government remains overly-optimistic on the economy’s growth prospects and still hasn’t acknowledged the strength of underlying... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ruble’s decline and what it means for Russia The steep fall in the ruble over the past month will affect different parts of the economy in different ways. The government is likely to be one of the major winners. By contrast, consumers are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira has further to fall The rise in the Turkish lira today has brought some respite to the beleaguered currency. And with the central bank now tightening monetary conditions, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a modest rally in... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to activity stabilising September’s PMIs suggest that the slowdown in the region’s manufacturing sector may have stabilised towards the end of the third quarter. Encouragingly, the Polish PMI edged up, having fallen for the... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off highlights divisions in rate outlook The sharp sell-off in the Russian ruble and Turkish lira this month couldn’t have come at a worse time for policymakers. Growth is sluggish in both countries, but high inflation and concerns about... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What impact will Turkey’s slowdown have on its retail sector? The significant fall in the Turkish lira, coupled with a consumer-sector slowdown, will ensure that landlords of secondary schemes continue to face downwards pressure on rents. However, Turkey’s prime... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey comes back into the firing line There has been a broad-based sell-off in Emerging European markets over the past month, but those in Turkey have suffered some of the heaviest losses as a renewed focus on Fed tightening has brought... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank keeps rates on hold, policy to remain tight The Turkish central bank kept its key interest rates unchanged today, but there are signs that policymakers have started to tighten monetary conditions via the interest rate “corridor” to counter the... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Problems at Bank Asya turn attention to Turkey’s bank risks The near-collapse of the Turkish Islamic bank, Bank Asya, seems to be an isolated incident, the result of political feuding more than bad credit decisions. But it has put the spotlight back onto... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone more to blame for Q2 slowdown than Ukraine The slowdown in Central and South Eastern Europe in the second quarter has raised concerns about the region’s exposure to the crisis in Ukraine. In this Watch, we dig deeper into the GDP data to see... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish economy slows sharply on weak domestic demand Today’s weaker-than-expected Turkish Q2 GDP data reinforce the point that interest rate hikes earlier in the year are continuing to weigh on domestic demand. The poor figures are likely to result in... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
