Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine's political crisis takes a heavy toll on the markets Ukraine’s bond market has been pummelled following the escalation of the political crisis in recent days. And the hryvnia has continued to weaken. Elsewhere, Russian and Hungarian assets have... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s central bank could still cut interest rates further Having lowered interest rates by a little more than the market expected today, the Hungarian central bank’s post-meeting communiqué (unusually) didn’t give much away about the outlook for monetary... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Uneven recovery in lending conditions Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that lending conditions are diverging across the region. Credit growth is gathering pace in countries with healthier banking sectors, such as the Czech Republic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficits narrow, Turkey an outlier Turkey’s current account deficit widened sharply at the end of last year, but the recent tightening of monetary policy means it could now start to narrow substantially. Elsewhere in the region... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data likely to point to strengthening recovery The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe due later this month is likely to show that large parts of the region are on the mend, with Poland now the region’s star performer. We will... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey flirting with recession? It’s too soon to fully gauge what impact the recent financial market turmoil and sharp rise in interest rates might have on Turkish growth. But at first glance, there seems to be a real risk that the... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMI data highlight uneven recovery January’s manufacturing PMI data provide further evidence that the economies of Central Europe are enjoying a decent recovery, but that manufacturing in Emerging Europe’s two largest economies, Russia... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Market turmoil highlights region’s differences The fallout from the turbulence in EM financial markets has split Emerging Europe into two groups. One group contains Turkey, Russia and Hungary, whose currencies have been among the hardest hit in... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Turkey edges back to orthodoxy The operation of Turkey’s interest rate corridor means that the true extent of monetary tightening announced at last night’s emergency MPC meeting is a little less than the aggressive hike in the... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and Russia hit hard by the EM sell-off The Turkish lira has been the worst performing EM currency after the Argentine peso so far this year. This has forced the central bank to announce an emergency MPC meeting later today, at which it... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market turmoil underlines need for greater EM discrimination Market turbulence in Turkey, Ukraine and now Argentina has led to talk of a new crisis sweepingemerging markets (EMs). But the emerging world has become a far more diverse place over the pastdecade... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation likely to remain sticky in the “fragile five” The sharp falls in the currencies of the “fragile five” economies over the past half a year may cause import price inflation to rise over the next few months, particularly in Turkey and, to a lesser... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank shoots itself in the foot In spite of the recent sharp fall in the lira, high inflation and rising inflation expectations, the Turkish central bank (CBRT) caved in to pressure from the government and resisted hiking interest... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM recovery remains slow going Six months ago there were hopeful signs that growth in the emerging world might finally be picking up. But our GDP tracker suggests the upturn in growth seen in mid-2013 may have faltered in the final... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the threat from Turkish corporate FX debt The recent sharp fall in the lira doesn’t appear to have led to significant FX debt servicing problems for Turkish companies. But given the rapid expansion of corporate FX debt over the past decade... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Better governance needed for Turkish income “convergence” Improved governance appears to have been a key ingredient in Turkey’s economic success story over the past decade. But further reforms will be needed if Turkish incomes are to continue “converging”... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
