Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s economy slumps, growth weakens in Turkey The region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have continued to struggle over the past month. Russia’s economy appears to have contracted sharply by around 3% y/y in Q1. Meanwhile, we... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank tinkers around the edges to defend lira The Turkish central bank left its official interest rates unchanged today, but managed to make its monetary policy framework even more complex by tweaking a few obscure tools in an effort to release... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Turkish inflation is deep-rooted There is a growing debate in Turkey about what lies behind the strength of inflation, but we think this discussion has overlooked the absence of spare capacity. Without structural reforms to address... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s Sunday trading ban symbolic of reform backsliding The decision taken by the Hungarian government to ban Sunday trading is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy at an aggregate level. But as we explain in this Watch, it may lead to a shift in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Three scenarios for Turkey after the election Turkish financial markets are becoming increasingly worried about what lies in store after June’s parliamentary election, with fears focusing on the risk of rising authoritarianism under President... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) March’s manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe were something of a mixed bag, with the figures providing further evidence that the Turkish and Russian economies weakened, although in the latter... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The Turkish economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 2.6% y/y in Q4, driven by an uptick in consumer spending. But more timely activity data suggest that this improvement was short-lived, with growth... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shaping up well at the start of 2015 Despite concerns about deflation, a recession in Russia and sluggishness in the euro-zone, the latest data out of Central Europe have been surprisingly robust. Industrial production growth has... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rates unchanged as government pressure eases The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold today, rather than cut again, was clearly a response to the latest sell-off in the lira, which has forced President Erdogan to tone... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jan.) Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed substantially in January on the back of a fall in imports. But this wasn’t just due to lower energy imports – non-energy imports fell too. This adds to the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkish central bank independence matters The Turkish government’s attacks on the central bank (CBRT) have become increasingly aggressive over the past month, raising fears about the independence of monetary policy and triggering a sharp sell... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fragile five whittled down to three The fragile five have been whittled down to three as economic reforms have helped to reduce the vulnerability of the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah to the recent bout of emerging market currency... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jan.) & Czech CPI (Feb.) The 2.2% y/y fall in Turkish industrial production in January was distorted a little by base effects, but even so the data highlight the extent to which the economy is struggling. The consensus view... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.5% y/y, was probably temporary and we think the headline rate should edge down over the coming months. But the bigger picture is that Turkish price... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian consumers feel the squeeze The latest data have given mixed signals on the performance of Emerging Europe’s economies. The encouraging news is that growth in much of Central Europe (particularly Poland and Hungary) seems to be... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey cuts rates but lira concerns limit room for further easing Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) justified today’s decision to lower interest rates on the grounds that inflation has fallen back, but the reality is that it remains under intense pressure from the... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
