Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: a decent Q3, but risks growing Turkish GDP growth held up relatively well in Q3 in spite of the turmoil in the financial markets and a substantial tightening of monetary policy. However, this was made possible by a rapid expansion... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Elections in the "Fragile Five": threat or an opportunity? Each of the five countries that were the worst hit by the summer currency sell-off (the so-called “Fragile Five”) are due to hold important elections next year. In the short term, uncertainty ahead of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update November’s PMIs suggest recovery is strengthening The latest PMIs for Emerging Europe show that the region's manufacturing sector strengthened further in November. The important exception is Russia, whose PMI fell back last month, adding to the... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth gradually picking up A raft of GDP data released over the past month confirmed that growth in Emerging Europe accelerated in Q3, albeit gradually. Overall, we calculate that regional GDP expanded by 1.8% y/y, up from 1.6%... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian and Turkish markets continue to underperform It’s been a bumpy few weeks for equities and currencies in the region. Those in the two largest economies, Turkey and Russia, have underperformed. Meanwhile, the Czech koruna has posted the largest... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey tightens modestly but more may be needed The Turkish central bank made a small adjustment to its liquidity provision today which should lead to a modest rise in market interest rates. However, there's little more that the MPC can now do to... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Russia’s shift to a free float could yet pay off Last week’s decision by Russia’s Ministry of Economy to downgrade its forecasts for long-run growth has revived the debate about what policymakers need to do in order for Russia to regain its economic... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show Czech recovery, early signs of improvement in Russia The partial release of October’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provide further evidence that the region’s recovery continued at the start of the fourth quarter. The Czech PMI is now... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack An uneven recovery Growth in Emerging Europe continues to accelerate, but the recovery remains uneven. Central Europe, and Poland in particular, is leading the way. This is thanks to the recent improvement in key euro... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging European markets outperform other EMs Equity markets in Emerging Europe have outperformed the rest of the emerging world over the past month. The largest gains have come in Central Europe, where the growth outlook continues to improve... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: muddling through, for now The early signs suggest that Turkey’s economy has emerged from this summer’s turbulence in financial markets relatively unscathed. Nonetheless, while GDP growth appears to have held up, it has been... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary conditions likely to remain tight The decision by the Turkish central bank to keep interest rates on hold today reflects the stabilisation of capital inflows and the strengthening of the lira over the past couple of months. But... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Light at the end of the austerity tunnel While the economic challenges facing Russia and Turkey are growing, we're becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook for the rest of Emerging Europe. The pick-up in growth in recent months has... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should we worry about Turkey’s shopping centre pipeline? Over the next 18 months, Turkey’s shopping centre market faces a 20% rise in supply. Yet unlike 2008 and 2011, when supply rose by a similar margin, occupier market fundamentals should prove more... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking the long view The tendency of most forecasters (including ourselves) to focus on the growth prospects for Emerging Europe over a one or two year horizon means that the region’s medium-term growth potential is often... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update September’s PMIs show Turkey rebounding, Russia lagging September’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing in the highly-open Central European economies continued to recover and that Turkey’s manufacturing sector rebounded. However, growth in Turkey appears to... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
