Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data to show strengthening recovery in Central Europe This week’s preliminary first quarter GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe are likely to show that the region’s economic recovery strengthened at the start of the year, in spite of fears of... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rise in the Turkish lira belies external vulnerabilities The recent appreciation of the Turkish lira has taken many analysts – ourselves included – by surprise, not least because the economy still has large external vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in Polish PMI may overstate impact of Ukraine crisis The surprising fall in Poland’s manufacturing PMI last month could be interpreted as a sign that the crisis in Ukraine is taking its toll on Central and Eastern Europe. However, we would be cautious... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Unrest in east Ukraine has limited effect on markets Financial markets across Emerging Europe have proved relatively resilient to the recent escalation in political unrest in eastern Ukraine. But at the same time, the recovery from the losses earlier in... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe recovers as Russia struggles The latest activity data show that the recovery in Central Europe that started in the second half of last year gathered pace in Q1. Our GDP trackers suggest that growth in the Czech Republic, Hungary... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal stimulus alone won’t revive Russia’s economy The discussion about how to soften the fallout from the Ukraine crisis on the Russian economy has started to shift towards fiscal stimulus, with key ministers advocating looser fiscal policy earlier... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira at risk if Turkish MPC starts to ease policy The recent appreciation of the Turkish lira has caused the central bank’s (CBRT’s) MPC to adopt a more dovish stance, with Governor Basci suggesting that measures might be taken this month to loosen... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Two-speed growth in manufacturing Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month, but in the highly-open economies of Central Europe the data are still consistent with robust manufacturing output growth, of 7-10% y/y. By... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update AK party’s support may suffer from weakening growth Turkish municipal election results showed that PM Erdogan and the ruling AK party continue to enjoy high levels of popularity, bolstered by the strength of the economy. Nonetheless, in spite of today... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Crisis in Crimea takes its toll on Russia The escalation of the crisis on the Crimean peninsula is already taking a toll on Russia. The economy was doing little more than stagnate even before geopolitical tensions flared up. And large scale... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker domestic demand driving fragile five’s external positions At an aggregate level, the current account deficit of the “fragile five” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) showed a welcome improvement towards the end of last year. But progress has... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary conditions to remain tight The Turkish central bank left interest rates on hold today, but the bigger picture is that high inflation and a large current account deficit mean that policymakers will have to keep monetary... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do elections in Hungary and Turkey hold in store? Ruling parties look set to win handsomely in parliamentary elections in Hungary and local elections in Turkey in the coming weeks. However, while the outcomes may be foregone conclusions, both... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Ukraine crisis clouds outlook, but Central Europe recovering The crisis in Ukraine has unsettled the markets, but the economic fallout should be contained to the two countries directly involved – Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is by far the more fragile of the two... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is a downturn looming for Turkish retail property? Reflecting the recent hike in official interest rates, credit growth and consumer spending in Turkey are vulnerable to a slowdown. In turn, and given that rents are high while yields are low, there is... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industrial data point to diverging growth paths Industry in the highly-open economies of Central Europe has gathered steam in recent months, with output expanding by as much as 6-7% y/y. Manufacturers have been supported by the strengthening of the... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
