Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to a soft start to Q3 July’s manufacturing PMIs from Emerging Europe were, in aggregate, a little better than June’s figures. But they were still weaker than their average over the first half of the year. What’s more, much... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Interest rates heading in opposite directions The Russian central bank caused a surprise earlier this month by hiking its one-week repo rate in a pre-emptive move to limit capital outflows ahead of a fresh sanctions imposed by the US and EU. This... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets shrug off latest standoff with Russia The renewed violence in eastern Ukraine, the imposition of fresh sanctions by the US and the threat of further moves by the EU have weighed on Russian equities. But the recent falls haven’t been as... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets too complacent on risks to Turkish outlook The recent rally in the Turkish markets appears to have been driven by expectations of continued loose monetary policy in the developed world coupled – dare we say it – with a reasonable amount of... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey cuts rates, but easing cycle looks unsustainable The Turkish central bank continued to loosen monetary conditions today and pressure from the government means that further rate cuts look likely over the coming months. However, given the backdrop of... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A more challenging second half of the year The latest batch of activity data suggests that growth in Central Europe may be losing steam. Coming alongside signs that the German economy is also losing momentum, this suggests that the pace of the... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update June PMIs suggest Central Europe’s recovery is losing steam Last month’s manufacturing PMI data for Emerging Europe were disappointing. The recovery in Central Europe appears to have lost momentum in Q2, while the data provide further evidence that the Turkish... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Contagion from Bulgarian bank run limited The latest activity data suggest that growth across Emerging Europe has strengthened in recent months, but there are a few clouds on the horizon. For a start, the latest data from Germany, the largest... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to remain low Having cut its benchmark interest rate earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary gave a pretty clear signal in the accompanying communiqué that further rate cuts are on the cards and that monetary... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Russian markets continues Emerging European equities have rebounded over the past month, driven by Russian stocks. However, this has merely recouped losses seen earlier in the year. Looking ahead, we’re relatively downbeat on... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Central and Eastern Europe: competitive again The pre-crisis boom years in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) led to an erosion of external competitiveness which is one reason why the recovery from the 2008-09 crisis has been so sluggish. But... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish Q1 growth flattered by gold trade The Turkish economy held up well in Q1, in spite of a deepening political crisis and an aggressive hike in interest rates. However, growth was boosted by an improvement in Turkey’s gold trade balance... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to Turkey’s rebalancing than meets the eye Turkish Q1 GDP data due tomorrow are likely toreinforce optimism in the markets that the economyis undergoing a smooth rebalancing, with netexports taking over from domestic demand as themain driver... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ECB and what it means for Central & Eastern Europe Yesterday’s move by the ECB is another reason to think that monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will remain loose for longer than most people expect. However, the impact of the ECB’s... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Weak growth masks diverging prospects Growth in Emerging Europe is set to remain sluggish over the next couple of years, due in large part to continued weakness in the region’s largest economy, Russia, and a looming slowdown in the region... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish PMI may be overly pessimistic At first glance, the sharp fall in Poland’s manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the economy has lost some steam, perhaps due to spillovers from the crisis in neighbouring Ukraine. However, it’s... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
