Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey keeps rates on hold, but hikes looking increasingly likely The Turkish central bank kept its key interest rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement suggested that the MPC remains too sanguine on the inflation outlook and the risks posed by the large... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Apr.) Even though Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in April, the bigger picture is that it remains large. And the composition of external financing is a key vulnerability, with foreign direct... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) We wouldn’t get carried away by the better-than-expected 2.3% y/y rise in Turkish GDP in Q1. This stronger outturn was caused by a sharp pick-up in consumer spending, which came at the cost of a lower... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate hikes back on table amid post-election uncertainty The Turkish lira has stabilised today, but it remains vulnerable to further weakness. Faced with another leg down, we think the central bank might in the first instance lower the FX depo rate or scale... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update After the election: what next for Turkish politics? The market’s reaction to Sunday’s inconclusive Turkish parliamentary election was overwhelming negative. In this Update, we outline three scenarios to show how the political situation might develop. 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty adds to an already ugly picture in Turkey The loss by Turkey’s AK Party of its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002 makes President Erdogan’s desire to change the constitution to strengthen the presidency a pipe dream and... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (May) & Hungary Retail Sales (Apr.) The rise in Turkish inflation in May, to 8.1% y/y, was driven by a pick-up in core price pressures and provides further evidence that the economy’s inflation problems are escalating. Elsewhere... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: potential outcomes and market implications Fears ahead of Turkey’s parliamentary election on 7th June have centred on the risk of a dominant and increasingly authoritarian AK Party under President Erdogan , but in another twist to the plot the... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) May’s batch of manufacturing PMI data for Emerging Europe provided further evidence that the slump in the Russian economy has deepened in the second quarter. But the surveys finally brought some... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Equities weaken, bond yields rise Financial markets in Emerging Europe have generally performed poorly over the past month, with equities having dropped back and the region’s bonds having been hit by the sell-off in developed... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC underplays inflation and current account concerns The press release accompanying today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, suggests that policymakers are increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook. But we still... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s inflation problem likely to get worse We have been warning about the deep-rooted drivers of Turkish inflation for some time, and it now looks like energy prices will compound the problem by pushing the headline rate even further above the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Curr. Acc. (Mar.) & Czech CPI (Apr.) Turkey’s higher-than-expected current account deficit figure for March provides further evidence that weak exports have almost entirely offset the benefit to the economy from lower oil prices. And the... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Mar.) & Hungary CPI (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected 4.7% y/y rise in Turkish industrial production in March provides much-needed good news for President Erdogan ahead of next month’s election. But even so, growth in industry... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s raft of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe, released today and yesterday, suggest that conditions in the Russian and Turkish industrial sectors improved a little at the start of the second... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
