Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Today’s weaker-than-expected Turkish Q3 GDP data highlighted that domestic demand remained extremely sluggish and are likely to result in further government pressure on the central bank to lower... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Prime yields to fall for another three years The stance of monetary policy is likely to stay exceptionally loose for the foreseeable future. And coupled with low inflation, we expect bond yields to stay lower for longer. Therefore, it seems... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey & Czech Republic Ind. Prod. (Oct.) The modest weakening of Turkish industrial production in October reinforces our view that, while the slowdown in the economy has now bottomed out, it’s likely to be a sluggish recovery from here on... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit Turkey Comments from Turkey’s Finance Minister, Mehmet Simsek, that the sharp fall in oil prices will remove the economy’s status as one of the most fragile in the emerging world have some basis. The current... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (November) The rise in Turkish inflation to 9.2% y/y in November, which came in spite of the sharp drop in oil prices, underlines the strength of underlying price pressures in the economy. Given this, it’s... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC reiterates concerns about inflation The accompanying statement to today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, once again suggested that the Council remains concerned about the poor inflation outlook. This... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3), Pol. CPI (Oct.) & Turkey Current Acc. (Sep.) Russia’s economy performed better than even we had expected in Q3, but this predates the most recent slump in oil prices. We still expect the economy to slip into recession next year. Elsewhere... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Credit bubbles deflate – but at the cost of weaker growth There are encouraging signs that the credit bubbles that had been building in a handful of major EMs are now deflating. But this process has only just begun – and the modest slowdown in credit that we... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank quashes hopes for looser policy The accompanying statement to today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left on hold, is likely to quash hopes that have been growing in some quarters for looser policy in response to... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish government too upbeat on growth and inflation Turkey’s recently-published 2015-17 Medium-Term Programme shows that the government remains overly-optimistic on the economy’s growth prospects and still hasn’t acknowledged the strength of underlying... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ruble’s decline and what it means for Russia The steep fall in the ruble over the past month will affect different parts of the economy in different ways. The government is likely to be one of the major winners. By contrast, consumers are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira has further to fall The rise in the Turkish lira today has brought some respite to the beleaguered currency. And with the central bank now tightening monetary conditions, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a modest rally in... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to activity stabilising September’s PMIs suggest that the slowdown in the region’s manufacturing sector may have stabilised towards the end of the third quarter. Encouragingly, the Polish PMI edged up, having fallen for the... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off highlights divisions in rate outlook The sharp sell-off in the Russian ruble and Turkish lira this month couldn’t have come at a worse time for policymakers. Growth is sluggish in both countries, but high inflation and concerns about... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
