Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 23) 19th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central banks’ reaction functions diverge Central banks in Australia and New Zealand have taken starkly different approaches to managing the inflation-unemployment trade-off in their countries. Despite being behind the curve on interest-rate... 17th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Migration boom won’t be inflationary Concerns that the ongoing surge in net overseas migration to Australia will fuel demand-pull inflation are overblown, especially with the population still below its pre-virus trend. To the contrary, a... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA muddies the waters with pause The RBA's decision to leave rates on hold earlier this week doesn't signal the end of its hiking cycle, contrary to what markets expect. Given ongoing concerns about the stickiness of inflation, we... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily More hikes may not be enough to keep long-dated yields high Despite some central banks pressing on with hikes, we think long-dated yields will end this year at, or below, current levels. 5th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will send New Zealand into recession The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 50bp, to 5.25%, came as an upside surprise, but we still think the end of the hiking cycle is approaching. In any case... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Minimum wage will surge again With Australian unions and the government both in agreement on the need to protect low-income workers, we expect a bumper 6% rise in the minimum wage this year. However, given the low share of workers... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will slow the pace of tightening With the latest economic data coming in weaker than it had anticipated, the RBNZ will likely opt for a smaller 25bp hike to the official cash rate (OCR) at its upcoming meeting on April 5th. We expect... 29th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on a knife-edge With the minutes of the RBA's March meeting pointing to a slightly more dovish stance, there are growing risks to our forecast for continued tightening in April and May. We think the case for a pause... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: What does the recent banking sector turmoil mean for Asia? 1680163200 Although the recent flare-up of financial stability concerns has been a US-Europe story, its reverberations could be global.
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Tightening cycles nearing their end Both the RBA and the RBNZ have more work to do to rein in the recent surge in inflation. That aggressive monetary tightening is starting to take its toll on economic activity and we expect GDP growth... 20th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will shrug off market jitters Amid signs of trouble in the global banking system, markets believe that the RBA is done tightening and that rate cuts will be on the cards soon. However, with domestic demand showing few signs of... 17th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2022) With the New Zealand economy in for more pain on the heels of the Q4 GDP decline, we expect the RBNZ to start cutting rates towards the end of the year. 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA won’t hit pause just yet RBA Governor Phil Lowe’s statement that the Board was closer to a pause was interpreted by financial markets as a marginally dovish signal. However, with inflation yet to fall in earnest and the... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
