Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to tighten policy as upside risks dominate Data released this week have been a mixed bag, which means that the RBA's policy decision next week will once again come down to the wire. With job vacancies falling and household cash flows starting... 29th September 2023 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will deliver another hawkish hold Although economic activity has held up reasonably well thus far, we still think it will see another leg down. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our view that the RBNZ won’t lift rates any higher. That... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year Both economies have dodged a recession so far, but we still consider it more likely than not that output will shrink across the second half of the year. With inflation softening and labour markets... 22nd September 2023 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Higher energy inflation won’t prompt further rate hikes The recent jump in crude oil prices will lift headline inflation in Australia, but we doubt it will have much bearing on underlying inflation. Accordingly, we still think that the RBA's next move will... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2023) The unexpectedly strong rebound in activity last quarter means that the RBNZ may well judge it has more work to do. All told, there are growing risks that the Bank will not only hike again, but also... 20th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian labour market will cool further Data published by Australia's Fair Work Commission revealed that pay hikes under enterprise bargaining agreements (EBAs) soared to a new high in the first fortnight of August. However, the share of... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Industrial action looms, residential investment falls Earlier this week, unions at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG plants in Australia announced their intent to begin strike action from September 7th. Although the industrial dispute will have a... 31st August 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Storm clouds gather over the economic outlook New Zealand’s retail sales fell for a third consecutive quarter in Q2, as households continued to tighten their belts. What’s more, the sharp drop in heavy traffic volumes in July suggests that goods... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s economy remains in a rut Earlier this week, the RBNZ signalled that rates would need to remain at their current restrictive level until early-2025. However, we think the Bank will shift gears well before then, given the... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals extended pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold, as was widely expected. However, the minutes of today’s meeting were unambiguously on the hawkish side, with the Committee indicating the need to... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian households pinch pennies New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that real household spending well and truly fell of a cliff in Q2. Moreover, with consumer sentiment in the doldrums, private consumption is... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ done hiking, rate cuts in Q1 2024 With inflation coming off the boil and labour market conditions starting to turn, we suspect that Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not lift interest rates any higher. To be sure, the Bank is likely to... 9th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA unlikely to lift rates any higher With the Reserve Bank of Australia having left its cash rate unchanged for two consecutive meetings, we think its tightening cycle is at an end. Indeed, the RBA appears increasingly concerned that... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
