Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy braces for more pain The RBA's hawkish turn has led us to revise up our forecast for the peak cash rate to 4.85%, from 4.35% previously. The resulting rise in mortgage rates means that housing affordability will soon... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing sector creates headaches for the RBA Although house prices in Australia made further gains in May, we don't think that's a sign that the broader economy will remain resilient in the face of monetary tightening. Indeed, residential... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy divergence and what it could mean for markets Coming monetary policy divergence may have implications for sovereign bond markets, but we doubt it will be the key driver of FX markets where we think the threat of a recession looms. 24th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle is at an end The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 25bp, to 5.50%, was in line with what most had anticipated. However, with the Bank sounding more dovish than it has in... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s productivity problem persists The latest data suggest that Australia’s productivity will continue to languish in the near term. The resulting surge in unit labour cost growth will keep services inflation stubbornly high... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will hike to 5.75% in July The latest data don’t tell a compelling story as far as the outlook for inflation and the economy are concerned. Although inflation expectations are falling, measures of underlying inflation are still... 17th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand to maintain budget discipline We’re inclined to take Prime Minister Hipkins at his word that the New Zealand government will hand down a fiscally responsible budget next week. We expect government priorities, including cost-of... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth has yet to peak Pay hikes under Australia's private-sector enterprise bargaining agreements have gained traction. Although annualised wage growth will climb higher over the course of the year, we still expect a... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) New Zealand’s labour market remained extremely tight last quarter, presenting upside risks to our forecast for a 25bp rate hike later this month. 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Some lessons from the RBA and RBNZ for global yield curves We don’t think central bank hawkishness in major developed markets would necessarily push long-term yields up by much. 2nd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly House prices in New Zealand will keep falling The RBNZ's proposal to ease loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions is unlikely to be a panacea for New Zealand's ailing housing market. With housing still far too unaffordable for most, house prices... 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More trouble brewing down under Things will get worse before they get better for the Antipodean economies. House prices in New Zealand have plummeted by 18% from their January 2022 peak. And with affordability extremely stretched... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2023) Although inflation in Q1 was below what the RBNZ had expected, we don’t expect the Bank to take its foot off the brakes just yet. Indeed, with non-tradables prices continuing to rise at a rapid clip... 20th April 2023 · 2 mins read
