Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth will surpass 3% next quarter While there are some early signs that the recovery in employment is sputtering, we aren't convinced that the labour market has turned for the worse just yet. With labour shortages still severe and the... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike rates to 4% but cut next year The RBNZ lifted the overnight cash rate by 50bp to 3% today as everyone had anticipated and signaled that it will deliver another 50bp hike in October. We now expect the Bank to hike rates to a peak... 17th August 2022 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening cycle will stop by year-end Rising interest rates are weighing on the housing market but economic activity is holding up and inflation has continued to accelerate. The upshot is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike... 10th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Q2 2022) The first rise in New Zealand's unemployment rate since mid-2020 suggests that the RBNZ's hiking cycle is nearing its end. Indeed, we expect the RBNZ to start cutting interest rates next year. 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy to slow more sharply than Treasurer expects While we expect the economy hold up a bit better than the Treasurer in the near-term, aggressive policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia will exacerbate the ongoing housing downturn... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation to surge despite falling commodity prices The recent fall in global food and crude oil prices means that the inflation outlook has become more nuanced. But with coal and wholesale gas prices at record highs, Australians will soon witness the... 22nd July 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack RBA to hike rates more sharply than most anticipate The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that the Bank debated a smaller 25bp rate hike but ended up hiking rates by 50bp. Those minutes also included a discussion of the level of the neutral... 21st July 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2022) The stronger-than-expected rise in consumer prices in Q2 adds some upside risks to our forecast that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lift rates to 3.5%, but we still think that weaker economic... 18th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will deliver 75bp rate hike next month With consumer spending resilient, the labour market tightening far faster than anyone had anticipated and inflation set to surge further in Q2, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ hiking cycle will end by year-end The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates by 50bp in July but emerging worries about the health of the economy are consistent with our view that rates will peak around 3.5% rather than the 4%... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity holding up this year but will weaken in 2023 The latest data show that consumer spending is defying downbeat sentiment and rising interest rates by continuing to strengthen. Indeed, we have been arguing for some time that strong financial... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn raises recession risks With inflation rising even further than we had anticipated, both the RBNZ and the RBA will slam harder on the brakes than most anticipate. We expect policy rates to peak around 3.5% in both countries... 7th July 2022 · 25 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening cycle shows no signs of slowing Rising interest rates have started to weigh on house prices and sentiment. But inflation is probably still rising and the labour market is still tightening. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to hike... 7th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn to weigh on activity The housing downturn is now in full swing. While that hasn’t prevented a solid rise in consumption in Q2, we think falling wealth will be a drag on consumer spending next year. What’s more, our... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More 50bp hikes coming We agree with RBA governor Phillip Lowe that market pricing for the Cash rate looks too aggressive. But we also think the consensus is still too dovish. After all, Governor Lowe is starting to grow... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures keep building The big minimum wage hike announced by the fair work commission this week will lead to higher wage growth over the coming year. Given the tightness in the labour market and rising cost pressures... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
