Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Private consumption will weaken further this year While Q4 GDP was broadly in line in with our expectations, the details show that the Australian consumer is on weaker ground than we had thought. The confluence of falling real disposable incomes... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Risk of wage-price spiral still contained The more muted rise in wages last quarter should mollify the RBA’s concerns that the surge in inflation will trigger a wage-price spiral. While the fading impact of last year’s outsized minimum wage... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will stop hiking at 5.25% Even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand slowed the pace of tightening at today’s meeting, it still signalled a peak in the overnight cash rate of 5.50% by the middle of this year. Our more... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weaker labour market will keep a lid on wage growth While the second consecutive fall in employment in January may partly reflect seasonal distortions, there can be little doubt that the labour market is rapidly losing momentum. The unemployment rate... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to slow sharply The 6.9% annual rise in Australia’s trimmed mean CPI in Q4 was stronger than the RBA’s November forecast and has prompted some hawkish rhetoric from the Bank at its February meeting. Indeed, we now... 15th February 2023 · 12 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will press ahead with another 75bp hike The incoming data have been a touch softer than the RBNZ had anticipated. While we still expect the Bank to press ahead with the 75bp hike it signalled in November at the upcoming meeting on 22 nd... 15th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We think bond yields will fall in Canada & ANZ We think sovereign bond yields in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand will drop further by end-2023. 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing slump still searching for the bottom Australia’s house prices are still falling rapidly and there is no bottom in sight. The fastest house price decline in Australia’s history will soon be the largest as the RBA continues to ratchet... 3rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong income growth in New Zealand won’t last The resignation of New Zealand’s Prime Minister opens the door for the opposition to return to power, who have signalled looser policy at a time when government spending is already around record highs... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Leading indicators flashing red in New Zealand New Zealand has been the canary in the coalmine for the global economy in recent years so the plunge in the ANZ activity outlook to the second-lowest level on record is cause for concern. Meanwhile... 23rd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Full impact of higher interest rates hasn’t been felt yet According to RBA estimates, household interest payments jumped from 5.1% of disposable income in Q1 to 6.9% last quarter and we expect them to reach 12.5% by end-2023. With household debt around... 21st December 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More stringent price cap still not a disaster The proposed price caps for natural gas are more stringent than we had thought because the government intends to regulate prices for the foreseeable future. However, we still think that the impact on... 16th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 22) The huge jump in Q3 GDP will prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to press ahead with another 75bp hike in February, adding to our conviction that a recession lies ahead. 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls Soaring interest rates and weak real income growth will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. With New Zealand’s central bank determined to... 12th December 2022 · 26 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too early to declare victory on inflation The financial markets have scaled back their expectations for the peak in the cash rate following soft data on consumer spending and inflation. But while inflation will peak at slightly lower levels... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
