Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle is at an end The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 25bp, to 5.50%, was in line with what most had anticipated. However, with the Bank sounding more dovish than it has in... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s productivity problem persists The latest data suggest that Australia’s productivity will continue to languish in the near term. The resulting surge in unit labour cost growth will keep services inflation stubbornly high... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will hike to 5.75% in July The latest data don’t tell a compelling story as far as the outlook for inflation and the economy are concerned. Although inflation expectations are falling, measures of underlying inflation are still... 17th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand to maintain budget discipline We’re inclined to take Prime Minister Hipkins at his word that the New Zealand government will hand down a fiscally responsible budget next week. We expect government priorities, including cost-of... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth has yet to peak Pay hikes under Australia's private-sector enterprise bargaining agreements have gained traction. Although annualised wage growth will climb higher over the course of the year, we still expect a... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) New Zealand’s labour market remained extremely tight last quarter, presenting upside risks to our forecast for a 25bp rate hike later this month. 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Some lessons from the RBA and RBNZ for global yield curves We don’t think central bank hawkishness in major developed markets would necessarily push long-term yields up by much. 2nd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly House prices in New Zealand will keep falling The RBNZ's proposal to ease loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions is unlikely to be a panacea for New Zealand's ailing housing market. With housing still far too unaffordable for most, house prices... 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More trouble brewing down under Things will get worse before they get better for the Antipodean economies. House prices in New Zealand have plummeted by 18% from their January 2022 peak. And with affordability extremely stretched... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2023) Although inflation in Q1 was below what the RBNZ had expected, we don’t expect the Bank to take its foot off the brakes just yet. Indeed, with non-tradables prices continuing to rise at a rapid clip... 20th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 23) 20th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central banks’ reaction functions diverge Central banks in Australia and New Zealand have taken starkly different approaches to managing the inflation-unemployment trade-off in their countries. Despite being behind the curve on interest-rate... 17th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Migration boom won’t be inflationary Concerns that the ongoing surge in net overseas migration to Australia will fuel demand-pull inflation are overblown, especially with the population still below its pre-virus trend. To the contrary, a... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA muddies the waters with pause The RBA's decision to leave rates on hold earlier this week doesn't signal the end of its hiking cycle, contrary to what markets expect. Given ongoing concerns about the stickiness of inflation, we... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
