RBNZ Watch Rates will peak at 5.0% but will be cut by end-2023 With the labour market and inflation going from strength to strength and the next meeting three months away, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike the overnight cash rate by 75bp at its... 16th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resilience in consumption won’t last The RBA Deputy Governor this week noted that the Bank is getting closer to the point where it can stop tightening, which creates some downside risks to our above-consensus interest rate forecasts... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Q3 2022) New Zealand’s labour market remained very tight last quarter and coupled with the continued strength in inflation. the RBNZ will probably hike by 75bp in a couple of weeks. 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Timing and nature of “pivots” will vary The dovish tilt among central banks has led to more talk of “pivots”, but this will mean different things for different banks. The ECB may be shifting to a slower pace of tightening, but the peak in... 1st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update 5% peak in OCR will worsen housing downturn This publication has been resent due to an error with the previous email. The continued strength in inflation will encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike the overnight cash rate by 75bp in... 20th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q3 2022) The much stronger than expected rise in consumer prices in Q3 will encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike rates by another 50bp at its November meeting and poses upside risks to our view... 17th October 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the aussie and kiwi have a bit further to fall We expect the aussie and the kiwi to weaken further against the US dollar and trough around mid-2023. And while we don’t expect the aussie to outperform the kiwi as it has recently, we think it will... 12th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls Soaring interest rates and falling real incomes will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. In fact, we now expect New Zealand to enter a... 12th October 2022 · 26 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike all the way to 4.5% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked the overnight cash rate by 50bp to 3.5% as widely anticipated and the hawkish tone of the statement is consistent with our forecast that rates will peak at 4.5%... 5th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting (Oct. 22) 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will hike rates all the way to 4.5% With GDP growth holding up and food inflation climbing to a fresh high, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike rates by another 50bp to 3.5% at its upcoming meeting on 5th October. And with the... 28th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2022) Despite a large rise in Q2, New Zealand’s GDP remains well below its pre-virus trend and that shortfall will widen as the surge in interest rates weighs on activity. 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth will surpass 3% next quarter While there are some early signs that the recovery in employment is sputtering, we aren't convinced that the labour market has turned for the worse just yet. With labour shortages still severe and the... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike rates to 4% but cut next year The RBNZ lifted the overnight cash rate by 50bp to 3% today as everyone had anticipated and signaled that it will deliver another 50bp hike in October. We now expect the Bank to hike rates to a peak... 17th August 2022 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening cycle will stop by year-end Rising interest rates are weighing on the housing market but economic activity is holding up and inflation has continued to accelerate. The upshot is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike... 10th August 2022 · 7 mins read
