Europe Economics Update Italian industrial data not as good as they look August’s strong increase in industrial production in Italy is not as good as it first appears. The timelier surveys point to annual declines in output, and rising virus numbers present a growing... 9th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian labour market not finished shedding jobs yet Employment rose in Italy for the first time in five months in August, but this is unlikely to be the start of a trend. With the short-time work scheme becoming less generous and then expiring at the... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions (and answers) about Italy We think that economic activity in Italy is still nearly 10% below its pre-crisis level. Even without a second wave, the economy will remain weak and the budget deficit wide for several years... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Decline in Italian unemployment will soon reverse As the crisis in Italy escalated, record numbers of disillusioned jobseekers dropped out of the labour force, causing the unemployment rate to fall. Now that the lockdown is being lifted and activity... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB could own 40% of Italian gov’t bonds by year end We think that the ECB could end this year owning 40% or more of the government bond markets in Italy, Spain and Greece. That would help to cap bond yields this year, but it could create serious legal... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Large pre-let pipeline in Milan won’t prevent rent falls Despite a large share of Milan prime space being pre-let this year, we think that a sharp drop in net absorption will result in prime office rent declines. And we don’t expect rental growth to bounce... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) Italy’s economy experienced a bigger contraction than the euro-zone average in Q1. And the closure of non-essential businesses at the end of March means that it is set for a much deeper downturn in Q2... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How quickly will euro-zone activity return to normal? Although restrictions are set to be lifted in the coming weeks, economic activity in the euro-zone will remain significantly below pre-virus levels for a long period. Consumers are likely to be wary... 29th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is southern Europe finally embracing e-commerce? While COVID-19 has forced consumers in southern Europe to shop online, we think that e-commerce penetration will remain lower for structural reasons, which is one reason why prime retail rents in... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Latest Italian data show huge falls in activity Activity in some large parts of Italy’s economy – including manufacturing – appears to be down by more than 50%. Even if the lockdown is relaxed in May, we think that GDP will fall by about 10% this... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) The PMIs show that activity in Italy and Spain plummeted even before the authorities in both countries shut down all non-essential businesses. Euro-zone GDP is almost certain to fall at a record pace... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Italian COVID-19 infections data The number of new confirmed Covid-19 cases in Italy has been on a downward trend, raising hopes that the lockdown is beginning to work. In this Update, we put the numbers in context. 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Italian Consumer and Business Confidence (Mar.) Italy’s virus containment measures have already caused a huge contraction in activity. We had assumed a peak-to-trough decline in GDP of about 15%, but it could easily fall much further. 27th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Virus cost will add to Italy’s debt problems The cost of the coronavirus crisis could push Italy’s public debt ratio up to 160% of GDP or more in 2020. This shouldn’t spark a crisis this year because the ECB will stand behind the bond market... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian quarantine to cause deeper downturn As a share of the population, Italy already has double the number of coronavirus cases as China, and the entire country is now in quarantine. We think that this is likely to cause its economy to... 10th March 2020 · 5 mins read
