Global Economics Update No end in sight for Italian fiscal stand-off The Italian Government’s reply to the European Commission suggests that there is unlikely to be a quick resolution to the current fiscal impasse. We expect yields to rise in the coming years. 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No end in sight for Italian fiscal stand-off The Italian Government’s reply to the European Commission suggests that there is unlikely to be a quick resolution to the current fiscal impasse. We expect yields to rise in the coming years. 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Implications of an Italy-EU budget clash On its own, the inevitable clash between the EU and the Italian Government is unlikely to have much of an economic impact, at least in the near term. However, the situation could well escalate next... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rating downgrades are another threat for Italy Rating downgrades as soon as the end of this month may well push Italian bond yields higher, with adverse effects on the economy and the banks. Further downgrades to junk status seem feasible in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further downside ahead for Italian equities The surge in Italian government bond yields in recent months has brought back to the forefront the vulnerability of the banking sector to falls in bond prices. Given our view that Italian bond yields... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s minor backtrack offers little reassurance The Italian Government’s fiscal projections, published this week, are based on overly-optimistic assumptions for GDP growth. We expect Italian bond yields to keep rising as the budgetary position... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Clouds darken over Milan office outlook With the economic outlook in Italy softening, the likelihood of weaker tenant demand at a time of rising completions means that we have lowered our forecasts for rental growth in 2019 and 2020. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s fiscal boost will fade in 2020 The fiscal stimulus planned by Italy’s Government should provide a small boost to GDP growth next year. But that boost will fade in 2020 just as the ECB is likely to be tightening monetary policy... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why Italy is not the new Greece While Italy and Greece have some similarities, the fundamental cause of Italy’s problems is not fiscal laxity but consistently weak economic growth. So rather than resulting in a sudden crisis, as has... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s banks still the weakest link Amid the concern about the state of Italy’s public finances, the banks remain the country’s weakest link. Indeed, despite improvements over the past few years, the banking sector is still too weak to... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s GDP growth forecasts are far too optimistic The economic assumptions underpinning Italy’s budget forecasts look over-optimistic. As a result, while the Government expects the public debt ratio to fall over the next few years, we think that it... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update BTP yields likely to rise further, but contagion risk low Italian bonds have come under renewed pressure after the government announced plans to loosen fiscal policy by more than markets anticipated over the coming years. We think that Italian bond yields... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s fiscal outlook worse than headlines suggest We think that Italy’s budget deficit will be even wider over the next few years than the Government’s projections imply. As a result, we expect bond yields to keep on rising. But unless yields surge... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will euro-zone office yields still rise in 2019? Our updated yield model points to prime euro-zone office yields rising by only around 5bps by the end of 2020. This is notably less than our forecast, which points to a rise of 20bps in the same... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
