Global Markets Update Implications of the M5S/PD coalition for Italian assets Italian assets have rallied since a new ruling coalition between the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD) was formed. While we have revised our forecasts to reflect the reduced... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update What will a M5S-PD government mean for Italy? The formation of a coalition between the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party reduces the risk of a renewed clash with the EU over fiscal policy, but it does not dramatically alter the economic... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s latest political drama no game-changer Hopes that Italy’s political crisis will pave the way for a more market-friendly government are likely to be disappointed. The most plausible outcome is a new general election, either later this year... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update More trouble probably lies ahead for Italian bonds We think that government bonds in Italy will come under pressure again in the coming months, given the brewing political crisis there and the resulting increased uncertainty over the country’s fiscal... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update QE hopes unlikely to boost BTPs for much longer While we are lowering our end-2019 and end-2020 forecasts for the 10-year BTP yield, we remain pessimistic about the near-term prospects for government bonds in Italy. 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will the Italy-EU budget clash play out? We had previously assumed that the EU would put Italy into an Excessive Deficit Procedure in July, but recent reports suggest that this might be postponed until later in the year. Either way, Italy’s... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s “nonsense output gap” is not the big issue Some commentators have argued that technicalities around estimates of euro-zone countries’ output gaps have led to excessively-tight fiscal policy. While we have some sympathy with this view, in Italy... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about “mini-BOTs”? The Italian government issuing so-called “mini-BOTs” to pay public sector arrears would fuel speculation about Italy’s future in the euro-zone. It seems unlikely that this will happen over the next... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why Italy cannot escape from its debt trap There is little that Italy’s government can do to prevent its debt ratio from rising. For a number of reasons, not least of which is its membership of the euro-zone, the three paths to debt reduction... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s “fiscal shock” set to cause more problems Italy is on another collision course with the EU that looks set to push bond yields up and weigh on economic activity. 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italy may soon be considered riskier than Greece The spread between the yields of 10-year government bonds in Greece and Italy has fallen sharply following the latest European Parliament elections. We now forecast that it will turn negative... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eight quick points about the European elections Projections of the results of the European elections confirm that pro-European parties will continue to have a clear majority in the European Parliament (EP) itself, so little will change at EU level... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Divergence in E-Z peripheral bonds likely to continue The yield of 10-year government bonds in Italy has moved in the opposite direction to the yields of 10-year government bonds in Spain and Portugal recently. While we don’t expect that to continue, we... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bunds rally amid trade tensions and Italian fiscal risks Developments this week suggest that Italy’s government is on another collision course with the European Commission. Meanwhile, the risk of US car tariffs has eased, but it has not disappeared. Finally... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy is heading for another clash with the EU Recent comments by Italy’s deputy prime minister have increased the risk that Italy is placed in an EU disciplinary procedure later this year. There are a few ways that talks about Italy’s fiscal... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Italy This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Italy’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
