Europe Economics Update Italian GDP likely to contract in Q1 and Q2 The response by policymakers, households and firms to the spread of the coronavirus looks set to take a heavy toll on Italy’s economy. We suspect that GDP will contract in both Q1 and Q2, and that... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Good times won’t last for Milan prime offices The recent strength of Milan office take-up has not prevented rental growth slowing and isn’t likely to be sustained in 2020. Indeed, we expect a slowdown in employment growth to weigh on occupier... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian coronavirus cases increase downside risks So far, the knock-on effects from the downturn in China on the euro-zone economy have been negligible. However, the jump in confirmed cases in Italy this weekend adds another channel through which the... 24th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy at risk of falling into recession, again After Italy’s economy shrank at the end of last year, it looks set to continue to struggle in 2020. In fact, there is a clear risk that it falls back into recession for the fourth time since 2008. 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big a risk is the collapse of Italy’s government? Our economic forecasts for Italy are based on the assumption that the coalition government holds together, at least for the next two years. But in our view, the economic impact would be small if it... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surveys point to stagnation in Italy The latest activity and confidence indicators point to continued near-stagnation in the Italian economy. While household consumption is likely to keep growing, prospects for investment and exports are... 12th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3) & Unemployment (Sep.), HICP (Oct.) Italy’s economy eked out only a small expansion in Q3, and it looks set to continue performing very poorly over the coming years. We think that it will fail to grow at all in 2020. 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Greece/Italy 10-yr spread will fall further in our view The yield of 10-year government bonds in Greece is now only slightly above that of 10-year government bonds in Italy. Given Italy’s comparatively poor growth and debt dynamics and greater political... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s citizenship income to give small boost to GDP The “citizenship income” payment will boost Italy’s GDP growth next year by only about 0.1%, in part because take-up has been lower than predicted. While this also lowers the cost of the policy, the... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Implications of the M5S/PD coalition for Italian assets Italian assets have rallied since a new ruling coalition between the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD) was formed. While we have revised our forecasts to reflect the reduced... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update What will a M5S-PD government mean for Italy? The formation of a coalition between the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party reduces the risk of a renewed clash with the EU over fiscal policy, but it does not dramatically alter the economic... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s latest political drama no game-changer Hopes that Italy’s political crisis will pave the way for a more market-friendly government are likely to be disappointed. The most plausible outcome is a new general election, either later this year... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update More trouble probably lies ahead for Italian bonds We think that government bonds in Italy will come under pressure again in the coming months, given the brewing political crisis there and the resulting increased uncertainty over the country’s fiscal... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update QE hopes unlikely to boost BTPs for much longer While we are lowering our end-2019 and end-2020 forecasts for the 10-year BTP yield, we remain pessimistic about the near-term prospects for government bonds in Italy. 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will the Italy-EU budget clash play out? We had previously assumed that the EU would put Italy into an Excessive Deficit Procedure in July, but recent reports suggest that this might be postponed until later in the year. Either way, Italy’s... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
