Europe Economics Update Italy: reforms, not fiscal policy main post-election risk Italy’s right-wing coalition, which looks set to win the upcoming general election, will probably run slightly looser fiscal policy than Draghi’s government, but clashes with the EU similar to those... 15th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s gas crisis The surge in natural gas prices is a key reason why we expect Italy to fall into recession soon. If Russia stopped exporting gas to Europe entirely, Italy would suffer more than most but less than... 26th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy suffer a repeat of 2018? Italy’s next government is unlikely to bring the country’s future in the euro-zone into doubt, in a repeat of the turmoil that we saw after the 2018 election. But it will probably run looser fiscal... 26th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t stop Italy’s spreads from widening It looks like Italy is heading for an early general election. While that won’t necessarily cause an economic and financial crisis, bond spreads are likely to widen regardless of what the ECB announces... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Italian politics may cause more pain in peripheral bonds markets The latest political turmoil in Italy is a reminder that once Mario Draghi’s time as Prime Minister ends (presumably in Spring 2023 at the latest) Italian politics may become an even greater source of... 14th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian political drama complicates ECB debate If the return of political instability in Italy leads to an early election, government bond spreads are likely to widen, whether or not the ECB agrees the details of the Transmission Protection... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Another look at Italy’s debt arithmetic It seems most likely that Italy will be able to put its public debt ratio on a gradual downward trajectory, even as interest rates rise, by running primary budget surpluses. But if 10-year government... 5th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Rising interest rates to speed up property correction The weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates are expected to weigh on property performance. With valuations under increasing pressure from sharply rising bond yields, we think... 23rd June 2022 · 31 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian capital values to take a hit Italian prime property values continued to make solid gains in Q1. However, with the economic outlook downgraded and larger increases in property yields expected over the next couple of years, capital... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Euro-zone all-property returns total almost 9% in 2021 Euro-zone commercial property markets ended 2021 on a stronger note. Prime rental growth picked up in the office and industrial sectors, while retail rents held steady for the third consecutive... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big a problem are higher interest rates for Italy? Our base case is that monetary tightening by the ECB results in a manageable rise in Italy’s government bond yields. We think it would take 10-year yields rising to 5% or more to bring debt... 9th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Best possible outcome for Italy By re-electing Sergio Mattarella as president and ensuring that Mario Draghi remains prime minister, Italy’s political establishment has achieved what appears to be the best possible outcome. The... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong labour market not yet feeding through to wages Surveys published this week suggested that the euro-zone economy has had a weak start to 2022 amid surging cases, but this is likely to be short-lived. Meanwhile, although the labour market appears to... 28th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on Italy’s presidential vote Italy’s presidential election, which will begin next week, threatens to reignite political uncertainty that has been quiescent since Mario Draghi became prime minister last year. While we agree that... 21st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Inflation falling but rates may rise to zero We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic... 21st January 2022 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions and answers on Draghi’s future Italy will elect its next president in January, with prime minister Mario Draghi widely touted as a favourite to take up the post. If he did so, the current government would probably fall apart... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
