Europe Economics Weekly Italy kicks the can down the road This week, Italy’s Government again showed itself to be more flexible than many had anticipated. But its fiscal problems are far from over and, in our view, public debt still looks unsustainable in... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Business surveys highlight particular weakness of Italy While business surveys have weakened throughout the euro-zone, they imply quite different things for growth in each economy. The Spanish surveys still bode well. But the German and French indicators... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s fiscal troubles are not over Italy’s government has agreed to reduce its budget deficit forecast for next year, which reduces the risk of a crisis in the near term. But this does not spell the end of its fiscal troubles. With the... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth slowing, but wage growth rising The latest data on economic activity in the euro-zone have been weak, but policymakers at the ECB will have been encouraged by the continued acceleration in wage growth. At its meeting on Thursday... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Calm in Italy won’t last We think that this week’s decline in Italian bond yields will be reversed before long, weighing on the economy. Meanwhile, data released this week showed that core inflation in the euro-zone edged... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3, Breakdown) The second estimate of Italy’s GDP in Q3 showed that the economy performed even worse than previously thought. And while we know that temporary disruption in the car industry weighed on the economy in... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Higher interest rates in Italy to offset fiscal stimulus We doubt that the recent rally in Italian government bonds will last. And higher yields are already feeding through to higher borrowing costs in the private sector. We think that this will offset any... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Italian BTPs will probably continue to trade like “junk” Although Italian government bonds (BTPs) are already trading like “junk”, we think that their credit spread will rise even further next year for several reasons. 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fall in oil prices to boost consumer spending The sharp drop in oil prices this month supports our long-held view that lower inflation will give consumer spending a boost. And we doubt that the sell-off in the equity market will do much damage to... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italy’s now-junk credit spread will probably get bigger Italian government bonds are now trading like “junk”, but we think that the spread between the yields of 10-year BTPs and German Bunds will increase even more in 2019 as Italy’s problems escalate and... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t bail out Italy The ECB has a range of tools at its disposal to respond to the situation in Italy and its effects on the wider euro-zone. But for it to use them, there would have to be a serious escalation of the... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe considers response to Italy The EU looks set to launch disciplinary proceedings against Italy, perhaps as soon as next week. But unless the situation in Italy escalates dramatically, the ECB is unlikely to respond. Instead, the... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Markets, not the EU, could change Italy’s plans The small changes that Italy’s Government has made to its Budget are unlikely to placate the European Commission. So Italy looks set for greater budget oversight, which could eventually lead to... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy-EU tensions set to intensify Tensions between Italy and the EU are likely to escalate next week. Indeed, the Government has until Tuesday to submit a re-drafted budget, and despite coming under pressure from European policymakers... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italy’s problems shouldn’t stop euro’s revival in 2019 Although Italy’s problems are likely to continue to weigh on the euro next year, we still think that the currency will strengthen against the dollar in response to a favourable shift in monetary... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bond markets less vulnerable to contagion from Italy Although we expect Italian bonds to remain under pressure over the coming years as the country’s fiscal and economic outlook continues to deteriorate, we think that European bond markets are generally... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
