Emerging Europe Economics Update How big a threat are financial sanctions for Russia? The possibility that the EU might follow in the steps of the US and restrict access to capital markets for some Russian firms, coupled with Moscow’s decision this week to cancel another government... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in agricultural prices to help keep EM inflation muted Inflation across the EM world remains relatively low in aggregate terms, even if it is still worryingly high in a handful of countries. Looking ahead, with global food prices falling, and underlying... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Demand for EM equities grows despite Ukraine crisis The crisis in Ukraine is continuing to have very little effect on the financial markets in most other emerging countries, with the notable exception of Russia. In the past month or so, the MSCI... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rental growth in Warsaw and Krakow set to boost retail capital values Poland’s strengthening labour market and rising consumer confidence bode well for retail occupier demand in Krakow and Warsaw. And, with little new supply in the pipeline, the prospects for rental... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets too complacent on risks to Turkish outlook The recent rally in the Turkish markets appears to have been driven by expectations of continued loose monetary policy in the developed world coupled – dare we say it – with a reasonable amount of... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets may be overplaying Russia’s resilience The muted reaction in Russian markets to the growing likelihood of additional economic and financialsanctions by the EU probably reflects two things. The first is the widespread assumption that Europe... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's easing cycle at an end, policy to stay extremely loose The National Bank of Hungary cut its benchmark interest rate by more than both we and the consensus expected earlier today, but followed this up with comments that its two-year long easing cycle is... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia still the biggest loser from Western sanctions The direct effects on the European economy of any sanctions-related disruption to trade with Russiawould not be trivial but the impact via energy markets may be less than many fear. Sentiment could... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The implications of the latest twist in the Ukraine crisis Russia is a vital source of global supply of a wide range of commodities, from energy to metals andgrains. At the time of writing, the likely repercussions of the shooting down of a civilian aircraft... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fresh sanctions add headwinds to Russia’s growth outlook June’s activity data have dented hopes of a sustained recovery in the Russian economy. A meaningful turnaround will require a significant rise in investment. But the latest round of sanctions on... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation in the BRIC economies Growth in the emerging world’s largest economies, the BRICs, appears to have stabilised afterslowing at the start of the year. The official data from China show GDP growthedging up in Q2 on the back... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey cuts rates, but easing cycle looks unsustainable The Turkish central bank continued to loosen monetary conditions today and pressure from the government means that further rate cuts look likely over the coming months. However, given the backdrop of... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s rate hike highlights fragile external position The decision by the National Bank of Ukraine to raise its discount rate earlier today serves as a reminder that, in spite of some positive developments over the past couple of months, the country’s... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising EM trade surplus a result of weaker growth The emerging market-wide trade surplus rose to a record high in US dollar terms in May. But while this would, at first sight, appear to be a positive development, much of the adjustment appears to be... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region's fragile banks come under scrutiny The vulnerabilities in Emerging Europe’s banking sectors have come back into the spotlight in recent weeks. However, our latest Banking Heat Map shows that while there are some parts of the region... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Private sector debt remains a concern in some EMs The legacy of the last decade’s sharp rise in private sector debt has kept credit conditions tight and domestic demand weak across a number of EMs over the past few years. And while some of them have... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
