Commodities Update Coal prices to fall further as environmental regulations bite The recent sharp falls in imports of coal by China and consumption of coal in the US are just the latest evidence that environmental measures enacted over the last year have begun to reduce demand in... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How vulnerable are European gas supplies to the Ukraine crisis? Today’s announcement that both sides have agreed on a ceasefire should help to ease tensions inUkraine and move the government and rebels towards a sustainable peace deal. Admittedly, we havealready... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EM vulnerabilities: a stock-take A handful of EMs – mainly in Asia – have taken steps to reduce their external vulnerabilities in the wake of last year’s “Taper Tantrum”. But these countries are the exception rather than the rule... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Economic Outlook The recovery in Emerging Europe has fizzled out in recent months and we think growth will be sluggish over the coming quarters. The crisis in Ukraine presents one headwind, particularly for Russia... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for industrial rents in Hungary? Provided that Hungary’s apparent slowdown in the pace of economic growth is short-lived, industrial rental values are more likely to continue to mark time over the next few quarters than to fall. But... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Hunt for yield will drive investors east Over the first half of the year, capital values in the Emerging European commercial property markets were little changed, while values in non-euro-zone Western markets edged a little higher. Over the... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC signals rate cuts The Polish MPC made it pretty clear at today’s post-meeting press conference that subdued growth and extremely low inflation mean that interest rates will be lowered over the coming months. For now... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export-focused EM manufacturers are outperforming August’s PMI data from the emerging world were something of a mixed bag. But one theme that stands out is that most export-oriented manufacturing economies are performing relatively well at the moment... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update August’s PMIs suggest growth in Central Europe slowed further Last month’s batch of manufacturing PMIs suggests that the recent slowdown in the Turkish economy may have bottomed out but it provides yet further evidence of weakening growth in Central Europe. 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM equity valuations still look favourable The strong performance of emerging market equities over the past month has driven the price/12m forward earnings ratio further above its five-year average. In fact, on this measure, equity valuations... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Pick-up in Asia masks downturn in Lat. Am. and Europe Our GDP Trackers suggest that although EM growth has been broadly stable over the past few months, a significant divergence in performance has opened up between regions. Growth in Asia seems to have... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Renewed escalation in Ukraine hits region’s financial markets Claims by Ukraine’s government that Russia has deployed troops in the east of the country have led to sharp falls in financial markets across Emerging Europe today. Some of the sharpest falls have... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latin America inflation woes deepen Although inflation at the aggregate EM level remains fairly benign, there are big differences between the main EM regions. Inflation is fairly low in most of Emerging Asia, but is high and rising in... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers too sanguine on external vulnerabilities The decision by Turkey’s central bank to cut its overnight lending rate, which forms the upper bound of the corridor in which market rates are allowed to fluctuate, suggests that it is becoming less... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Turkish inflation won’t fall back as far as the CBRT expects Turkish policymakers have argued that the recent rise in inflation is a temporary phenomenon and this, in turn, has fuelled speculation in the markets that interest rates will be cut further. However... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Drop in oil prices underscores Russia’s vulnerabilities The fall in oil prices over the past month poses another headwind for Russia’s struggling economy. The drop in prices is unlikely to have a major bearing on the outlook for the rest of this year –... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
